Viju Cherian
After losing the recent assembly elections, one would expect the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to be on the back foot. However, to take the cricket analogy further, even after losing a few wickets in quick succession, the BJP is playing on the front foot. BJP President Amit Shah’s message to party workers in Maharashtra to prepare to fight the 2019 general elections alone, and not in alliance with the Shiv Sena, gives the impression that the party has taken the recent electoral setbacks on the chin.
This shows the confidence of the BJP — that it is positive about facing the people at the end of its five-year term, and, if necessary, will do it on its own, without the help of allies. However, with allies leaving the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and opposition parties forming alliances, is the BJP at a disadvantage?
Rifts in the two-decade-old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance appeared in 2014, right after the general elections. In the state elections that were held in October that year, the BJP and the Shiv Sena contested separately. By winning 122 seats (in a 288 seat Assembly and almost twice the seats the Shiv Sena won) the BJP showed that it no longer was the junior partner in the alliance in the state. The Shiv Sena, it appears, has not come to terms with this change in dynamics.
The BJP contested 24 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra while the Shiv Sena contested 20 seats. Riding high on the ‘Modi wave’, the BJP won 23 seats and the Shiv Sena won 18. It also helped the BJP-Shiv Sena combine that the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) did not have an alliance.
This time though there could be a Congress-NCP alliance which would consolidate the anti-BJP, anti-Shiv Sena votes. If the BJP and the Shiv Sena were to fight it alone, right-wing votes would be split hurting both parties. Add to this the pressure of farm distress, effects of demonetisation and the GST, and anti-incumbency — the BJP could be in for a rough ride in Maharashtra.
In the three Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which the BJP lost to the Congress in December in the assembly elections, it had won 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Repeating that tally will be difficult. In Uttar Pradesh, the state that gave the BJP 71 MPs in 2014, the BSP-SP alliance is expected to give a tough fight.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is no longer an NDA member and with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) also refusing to break bread with the BJP, the saffron party is unlikely to win a significant number of the 42 seats in the two states.
In Karnataka, the BJP won 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. This time, however, with the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) joining hands, it is to be seen if the BJP can retain that number.
The BJP’s performance in West Bengal (42 seats), Odisha (21 seats) and Tamil Nadu (39 seats) should be assessed by the fact that its track record against strong regional parties is nothing to brag about.
The BJP has lost allies and has failed to win new friends. The ‘Modi wave’ is not the giant tide it was in 2014. Now it has to face not just the opposition parties, but also friends turned foes. In 2014, the BJP won the elections on the momentum it created in its favour. Today, as things stand, the party will be pinning its hopes on the mistakes the other parties make in the run-up to the general elections.
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