With the Kashmir Valley gearing up for its first assembly elections since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the political landscape in the region has undergone significant changes over the past five years.
For the first time in four decades, the elections are free from violence and militant threats, sparking widespread public enthusiasm in ongoing election campaigns.
The election buzz this time is so vibrant in the Valley that young people are seen dancing and chanting slogans in support of their political leaders, as rallies traverse roads, including areas once known as hotbeds of militants and separatists.
Given the high voter turnout in the recent Lok Sabha polls, where Kashmir saw its highest participation in 35 years at 50.86%— it’s expected that a similar engagement will be seen in the assembly elections.
Article 370 Remains A Theme
On the ground, the high voter turnout appears to be driven primarily by a desire to prevent the BJP from gaining power in Kashmir. Many believe that voting is the key to get back Article 370, statehood, local representation and advocating for the release of people currently in jail.
Despite the J&K assembly’s limited power as a Union Territory where the Chief Minister will be subordinate to the Lieutenant Governor (LG), the public is keen to vote.
Recent amendments to the Transaction of Business Rules by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) have further strengthened the LG’s control, extending to police matters, public order, All India Services, and key appointments such as the Advocate General.
Separatism To Constitutionalism?
While national and regional political parties mainly Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) were expected to compete in the Valley’s elections, the surprising entry of candidates previously associated with separatist ideologies has added a new dimension to the race.
For example, Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, popularly known as Sarjan Barkati—a jailed separatist leader and religious preacher is contesting the upcoming J&K assembly elections from the Beerwah and Ganderbal constituencies in central Kashmir.
Wagay’s daughter, Sugra, who has filed nomination papers for her father, is aiming to secure a sympathy vote to ensure his election victory and eventual release from jail.
Wagay, a resident of Shopian and currently incarcerated on charges of terror funding and promoting secession, rose to prominence during the street protests that erupted after the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani in 2016.
Similarly, Ajaz Ahmad Guru, the elder brother of Afzal Guru, who was convicted for the 2011 parliament attack, will also run as an independent candidate in the assembly elections from the Sopore constituency in north Kashmir.
Both Wagay and Guru are drawing inspiration from the recent success of jailed AIP leader Engineer Rashid, who won the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat by defeating prominent leaders like Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone. Rashid’s son, Abrar, led his father’s campaign, seeking votes to secure his release from jail.
Engineer Rashid-led AIP is struggling to gain traction as the party lacks impactful candidates. It has also faced criticism for accommodating former PDP and NC leaders and is perceived by some, including former CM Mehbooba Mufti, as an alleged proxy of the BJP. Many in the Valley have questioned the timing of Rashid's interim bail, granted until October 2, which coincides with the conclusion of the elections.
Former separatist leader Syed Salim Geelani, once influential in separatist politics, has transitioned to mainstream politics by joining the PDP.
Mufti’s PDP is also struggling, with political analysts predicting it could win fewer than ten seats in Kashmir. The party is in disarray, with many senior leaders departing, and is tainted by its unholy alliance with the BJP in 2015.
Jamaat Indirectly Seeks A Mandate
In a surprising turn of events, Jamaat-e-Islami has re-entered electoral politics in J&K after more than three decades, eliciting mixed reactions.
Following the Election Commission's announcement of elections in the region, several former Jamaat members—who had previously supported election boycotts—are now contesting as independent candidates.
The party, banned in 2019, has not participated in elections since 1987, but its former members are now actively engaging in the current electoral process.
By entering the elections, Jamaat members have made a significant U-turn, risking failure to win any seats due to their diminished public credibility and widespread mistrust.
Proxy Battles
The contest is shaping up between the NC-Congress alliance on one side and the BJP with its alleged proxies on the other. With candidates from multiple parties and independents in the race, it is unlikely that any single party will secure a majority of seats and form the next government in J&K. A fractured mandate could well result in a need for fresh elections.
The BJP, which did not field candidates in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir, is now contesting the assembly elections. The Peoples Conference, led by Sajad Lone, and the Apni Party, led by Altaf Bukhari, both seen as alleged BJP proxies, are also in the fray and may win some seats, particularly in north Kashmir. However, overall, BJP and its alleged allies appear to be trailing in the race.
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