The global order is no longer unipolar. The United States remains the world’s military power, financial centre and innovation hub. China commands manufacturing supremacy, technological scale and an alternative development model for the Global South. Europe continues to champion the liberal order — from climate protection to human rights. Russia asserts its military muscle and a doctrine of hard power.
Each of these poles seeks recognition, respect and influence. Increasingly, the Global South expects India to emerge as a fifth pole. That expectation is not misplaced — India today is the fastest-growing major economy. But the deeper question is: what does India stand for?
India’s strengths
By most measures, India has never been better placed. GDP growth of 6.5 per cent is nearly three times the global average. A middle class approaching 400 million is expanding purchasing power, while foreign direct investment exceeding $70 billion continues to flow into infrastructure, manufacturing and renewables.
India is also building something distinctive: an 800-million-strong, digitally enabled consumer economy. The Aadhaar identity system, UPI payments and low-cost mobile data have created the world’s largest open digital infrastructure. Unlike China’s state-driven platforms, India’s is open-source and accessible, giving it credibility as a model for the Global South.
India’s entrepreneurial spirit is another unique strength. From IT services to pharmaceuticals to start-ups, the private sector has consistently adapted and innovated despite constraints. This energy — more than state policy — has been India’s most reliable engine of growth.
The Indian diaspora adds another dimension. Some 32 million Indians live abroad, many in leadership positions across technology, finance and academia. From Silicon Valley CEOs to engineers in the Gulf, the diaspora is both a source of soft power and a bridge for investment, ideas and influence. Harnessed effectively, it can be one of India’s most powerful levers in shaping global norms.
India’s human capital pipeline is unmatched. The IITs and IIMs produce world-class engineers and managers, not just for India but for the world. This talent base underpins both India’s domestic rise and its contribution to global companies. The challenge is to capture more of this talent at home while continuing to project it abroad as a force multiplier.
Finally, India’s cultural footprint in Southeast Asia endures. From language to religion, Indian values remain embedded across the region. This reservoir of soft power gives India a natural affinity with its neighbours — a foundation for supply-chain partnerships, digital trade frameworks and education links that could anchor India more deeply in the Indo-Pacific economy.
Blind spots and vulnerabilities
Yet ambition collides with reality. Energy dependence is India’s most pressing vulnerability. Nearly a third of the economy is tied to energy, but India imports the majority of its oil and gas. Despite bold investments in renewables and green hydrogen, exposure to global price shocks remains acute.
Manufacturing is another gap. While “Make in India” has made progress, Indian firms have yet to match the global scale of U.S., Chinese or even European champions. Infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory unpredictability and shallow capital markets constrain speed and scale.
Innovation capacity, though improving, remains uneven. India excels in digital platforms that serve millions cheaply, but lags in frontier fields like AI, quantum and life sciences. It must decide whether to double down on “tech for the masses” — its proven strength — or risk competing in cutting-edge innovation where it still trails.
Jobs are also a vulnerability. Millions of young Indians enter the labour force each year, but employment growth has not kept pace with GDP. Unless growth translates into jobs, India’s demographic dividend could turn into a liability.
Climate is another risk. India is among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. Heatwaves, water stress and extreme weather could undermine growth and widen inequality.
Finally, India faces rising regional competition. Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh are also vying for supply-chain relocation. India must prove it can scale faster, deeper and more reliably.
The role of foreign capital
Here lies a paradox. India is not desperate for foreign capital — its vast domestic savings and retail participation provide resilience. Yet India does need foreign capital to meet its pole ambition. Domestic savings alone cannot finance the infrastructure build-out, energy transition and industrial expansion required for India’s rise.
This is why foreign and domestic capital must blend. Over 140 million new retail accounts have been opened in the last five years, deepening India’s markets. But foreign institutional investors bring scale, discipline and global best practices. Without them, India risks inwardness; without domestic savings, it risks volatility. Together, they provide the stable, long-term capital base essential for sustainable growth.
Not all capital is equal. India needs more patient capital — sovereign funds, pensions and long-term infrastructure investors — not just hot money chasing short-term returns.
India’s public markets are expensive, often among the priciest in the emerging world. Yet they remain attractive. High valuations reflect scarcity value: few other markets combine size, stability and growth at India’s scale. For global investors, India offers a mix of resilience and dynamism that justifies the premium.
India in the Indo-Pacific
Geopolitically, India balances delicately. With the U.S., ties have deepened across defence, technology and finance, even as New Delhi insists on autonomy. With Russia, historic energy and defence ties endure, even as Moscow leans closer to Beijing. With China, India faces its most difficult relationship — geopolitically adversarial, economically interdependent and regionally competitive.
But India is not merely balancing. Increasingly, it is shaping norms — through the Quad, digital trade standards and its growing role in supply-chain corridors. The Indo-Pacific, where 40 per cent of global trade flows, is the stage on which India’s ambitions will be tested.
The unfinished rise
Poles of power are defined not just by economic heft but by the models they project. The U.S. offers capitalism and innovation. China offers manufacturing and an alternative development path. Europe champions liberal norms. Russia embodies hard power.
What, then, should India stand for? Democracy and diversity are obvious. But more than that, India can stand for inclusive growth, digital innovation for the masses, entrepreneurial energy, and soft power that bridges the Global South with advanced economies.
India’s strengths are undeniable: growth, scale, digital depth, entrepreneurial drive, diaspora talent and cultural reach. Its vulnerabilities are just as real: energy dependence, incomplete manufacturing, uneven innovation, climate risk and social divides. Its rise will depend not only on its own policies, but on the capital it can attract, the partnerships it can sustain and the clarity of what it chooses to represent.
In a multipolar world, the ultimate recognition of India as a pole will come when it defines itself not just as a growth market, but as the pole of democracy, diversity and inclusive innovation. Until then, India’s rise will remain — a story unfinished.
(Robin Hu is Asia Chairman at Milken Institute and advisory senior director, Temasek)
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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