With less than a month to go for COP30 in Brazil, where countries are expected to submit their 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — their national climate action plans — India finds itself at an important inflection point. These near-term targets are the stepping stones for long-term decarbonisation and climate resilience. As India prepares to submit its next set of NDCs, the critical task is to chart credible pathways that balance economic growth, energy security, and decarbonisation.
India’s net-zero targets by 2070 set a clear long-term direction, but the critical task now is to chart credible pathways that balance economic growth, energy security, and decarbonisation. For the long term, while the target is fixed, India could pursue multiple pathways to achieve it.
India beats the deadline
This year, India also reached another milestone — half of its power generation capacity now comes from non-fossil sources, five years ahead of schedule. Recent projections by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE) model 18 scenarios for India’s future emission pathways to examine how different trajectories—shaped by macroeconomic trends, a manufacturing-led economy, progress in energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technologies, and societal choices—could influence the country’s emissions.
The good news: across all 18 scenarios, India’s emission intensity continues to decline in the coming decades. Moreover, at a time when developed countries such as the US and European Union are backtracking on their climate promises, our analysis suggests that India is on track to exceed its NDCs target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030. These reductions are largely attributable to continued deployment of renewable energy, rise of clean technologies, and improvements in energy efficiency.
Yet, absolute emissions will rise
The next question is how India can stay on course for the long haul. Will it rely on rapid structural reforms, a manufacturing boom, behavioural change, or breakthrough technologies, or a mix of them all, to reach net-zero emissions by 2070? This is the question we climate researchers ask ourselves constantly.
However, absolute emissions are expected to rise over time, reflecting fast economic growth, rising incomes, and growing energy demand. India is expanding its manufacturing base for increased self-reliance, particularly in future-facing sectors such as semiconductors. So, aligning industrial policy with clean energy integration will be essential to ensure that growth remains compatible with long-term decarbonisation.
Where do we go from here?
The real test lies in sustaining momentum and making strategic choices that deliver long-term, equitable decarbonisation. Our scenario analysis highlights several priorities that can help shape India’s next phase of energy transition.
First, the government’s push for rooftop solar through schemes such as the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana must remain a priority.
Rooftop solar not only expands clean energy access but also brings long-term benefits—reducing transmission and distribution losses, easing pressure on public investments, creating local jobs, and limiting land-use conflicts in a densely populated country. Further, our analysis shows that power pricing reforms—particularly the gradual removal of large electricity subsidies—make rooftop solar cost-competitive with grid electricity in the residential sector. But affordability for poorer households must not be compromised. A price-sensitive market like India’s requires continued support for vulnerable consumers.
Second, India must scale up clean technology deployment, but with careful attention to trade-offs. Support for small modular reactors, as introduced in the Union Budget 2025–26 could strengthen grid stability, a critical need as renewable penetration rises.
But nuclear power is not a silver bullet: in displacing coal, it could also crowd out solar and wind, just as the rapid expansion of solar undermined India’s wind sector a decade ago. Balancing these technology choices will be essential to ensure that India’s clean energy transition remains both ambitious and sustainable.
Third, India must double down on clean mobility. Extending the PM e-Drive scheme is vital—not only to cut carbon emissions but also to tackle urban air pollution.
Yet, our scenario analysis shows that even with a stronger push for buses, private two- and four-wheelers will expand as incomes rise. Better bus services also trigger a rebound effect, as more people shift from walking and cycling to buses, raising overall mobility demand. These dynamics mean emissions do decline, but less sharply than expected. The solution lies in diversified investments for cleaner mobility—scaling public transport, ensuring EV adoption across segments, and building charging infrastructure.
Fourth, energy efficiency and behavioural change, inspired by Mission LiFE, are indispensable for India’s net-zero journey.
Concrete evidence from the Bureau of Energy Efficiency shows that India saved ~200 MTOE of final energy, equivalent to around 1.29 GT of CO2eq, and close to Rs 760,000 Crores in savings from FY2017-18 to FY2022-23.
Invisible thread that’s key to net zero goals
Energy efficiency is invisible by design – diffuse, distributed, and cumulative. Yet, without it, India will not be able to achieve its net zero goals. Similarly, lifestyle choices—such as setting higher air-conditioner temperatures, reducing travel through work-from-home options, and adopting recycling—can deliver emission reductions of up to 10 per cent by 2050 compared to business as usual. These shifts also ease pressure on land and natural resources. Government and citizens must reinforce one another in adopting sustainable consumption patterns, so that everyday choices add up to systemic impact. Our research shows that personal choices do matter and can reduce significant emissions.
India’s progress so far shows that ambition and achievement can go hand in hand. As the country prepares for negotiations in COP30, the lesson is clear: We need to continue understanding trade-offs and shape development priorities that are not only low-carbon but also resilient and equitable.
(Pallavi Das is a Programme Lead with the Council on Energy, Environment and Water - CEEW and Satish Kumar is the President and Executive Director of the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy - AEEE.)
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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