India-Canada ties plummet as row over Khalistan activities intensifies

Keeping Khalistan pot simmering

In the eight years since he became PM, Trudeau has shown scant regard for Indian sensitivities on the Khalistan issue, allowing Sikh radicals to virtually have a free run on Canadian soil while ignoring India’s security concerns. Indian worries are not unfounded, given that Canada has a history of Khalistan backers operating from there. Remember Air India flight 182 which exploded off the coast of Ireland in 1985, killing all 329 passengers on board — the bombing of was executed by Canada-based Khalistan supporters.

In the nearly four decades since this bombing, India has succeeded in dousing the Khalistan movement which had propelled militancy in Punjab. However, much to its dismay, separatist elements in Canada, the UK, the US, Australia and Europe continue to fan the flames of secession. Indian anxieties are further exacerbated because it believes that Pakistan has a role to play in keeping the Khalistan pot boiling. In Canada, a Khalistan referendum was being held by secessionist outfit Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), even as Trudeau was in New Delhi to participate in the G20 Summit earlier this month. His government had clearly chosen to ignore New Delhi’s objections in the past as well to such referendums which it considers were “politically motivated exercises by extremist elements”. Given the cold shoulder by New Delhi yet again, Trudeau went virtually unnoticed and unheard in this mega gathering of world leaders. During his meeting with Trudeau, Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed to him Indian worries about the anti-India activities being carried out by extremist elements based in Canada and the lack of mutual trust. Trudeau, on his part, spoke about “foreign interference” by India, which it now emerges was his government’s allegation that India had a hand in Nijjar’s slaying.

For Trudeau, the frosty reception by New Delhi was nothing new, having been accorded similar treatment when he was last in India in 2018. Not even the charm offensive launched by the Canadian PM and his young family, all regularly turning out in garish Bollywood-inspired clothes, failed to win him friends or influence here. For, Khalistan was a sticking point in New Delhi-Ottawa relations then, as it is now. Clearly, Trudeau would rather imperil bilateral ties than take any stern measures against elements inimical to Indian interests. It’s all very well for Trudeau to cite “freedom of expression, freedom of conscience, and freedom of peaceful protest” as reasons for his government to overlook activities by Khalistani elements in Canada. But surely freedom of expression cannot mean allowing Khalistan backers to issue death threats to Indian diplomats posted in Canada. Or, letting a tableau depicting the assassination of former prime minister Indira Gandhi participate in a parade organised by Khalistan activists.

While PM Trudeau is making much of freedom of expression to justify the activities of Khalistani elements in Canada, the truth is he’s pandering to his domestic constituency where the Sikh diaspora constitutes a valuable support base for the Liberal Party. To be sure, it’s not the entire Sikh diaspora in Canada that supports the idea of Khalistan. However, those who do are perceived as having a free run under the Trudeau government. So even as New Delhi has frequently registered its protest with Trudeau over the activities of radical elements, he’s happy to ignore their actions for his narrow political interests. That Trudeau’s minority government is dependent for its survival on the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh, known for his support for the Khalistan cause, has not helped either. Perceived as a political opportunist, Trudeau was able to retain power in the 2021 elections even though it fell short of the majority by gaining the support of Singh’s NDP which won 24 seats.

Trade pact in jeopardy

With political expediency trumping over diplomacy for Trudeau, New Delhi has been forced to convey a firm message to Ottawa — it cannot be business as usual. Hence, the decision to call off trade negotiations meant to work out an interim agreement or the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) as quickly as by the end of this year, as announced by the two sides in May. Eventually, the two sides hope to ink the CEPA, giving a boost to the already robust bilateral trade ties. Bilateral trade in goods was pegged at $10.50 billion in 2022 — Indian exports were worth $6.40 billion and imports amounted to $4.10 billion. The bilateral trade in services in 2021 was $5.88 billion.

With the negotiations stalled, even an interim pact now seems unlikely anytime soon. With India headed for general elections next year, there is little possibility of even the negotiations resuming as the Modi government would not like to be seen as diluting its stand on the Khalistan issue. Amidst the rift in the relationship, Canada too has decided to call off a trade mission to India, led by minister of international trade, export promotion, small business and economic development Mary Ng, which was slated for next month. The Trudeau government has much to lose if it’s unable to see even an interim trade deal with India through during his tenure as PM. After all, his government sees India as a vital element of Canada’s own Indo-Pacific strategy, a region it views as one that has “economic dynamism”. This, in turn, it feels offers Canadian companies huge opportunities “for expansion, market exploration, and strategic partnerships” in India, given its growing economy and large population. Among the sectors where Canadian companies can work in India are agriculture, the automotive sector, infrastructure, and renewable energy.

Canada’s push for enhanced trade ties with India is also driven by the need to diversify its trade basket beyond the US and China. The Ottawa-Beijing relationship has been strained in recent years, propelling the need for trade diversification for Canada and its focus on the wider Indo-Pacific as a counter to China. But with Trudeau making light of New Delhi’s own concerns about Khalistan supporters, he may as well forget about a trade pact, for now.

Parul Chandra is a New Delhi-based senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs. Twitter: @ParulChandraP. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.