With BS Yediyurappa’s resignation, it’s time for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to reboot and reorient its energy under new leadership to face the elections due in Karnataka in 2023.
Karnataka acts as the party’s gateway to the southern part of India and is very important in the BJP’s scheme of things.
It will be a new beginning of sorts for the party, which has been facing internal bickering for quite some time. Yediyurappa has been facing allegations of corruption and nepotism. With this move, the BJP’s strategy is to start with a clean slate and negate any anti-incumbency brewing.
The replacement gives ample time to the party leadership to chart out a new vision/agenda for the state under new, young leadership.
The Karnataka strongman finally submitted his resignation to the Governor, ending months of speculation, on the day he completed two years as Chief Minister.
Yediyurappa, facing dissent within the party, and health issues, perhaps realised that today’s BJP of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah is not the same as the AB Vajpayee- LK Advani era, where he had a free run.
The central leadership is much more powerful and in control of things. Any threat to split the party and destabilise the government will be tougher than before.
The BJP high command managed to coax him to relinquish his position. The central leadership provided Yeddiyurappa with a long rope because of his stature and contribution.
He played an instrumental role in the installation of a BJP government in Karnataka. The stability of the government which enjoys a thin majority was the topmost priority.
Yediyurappa will be 80 in 2023 and the BJP has been working for some time to chart out a succession plan, under the supervision of BL Santosh, General Secretary (Organisation), BJP.
Yediyurappa is likely to be the caretaker Chief Minister for a few days as the party selects a new leader.
Several names have been doing the rounds including Basavaraj Bommai, Pralhad Joshi, BL Santosh, CN Ashwath Narayan, Laxman Savadi, Govind Karjol, Visveshwara Hegde Kageri, CT Ravi, Aravind Bellad, Basannagouda Patil Yatnal, and Murgesh R Nirani.
Going by the Modi-Shah track record and their ability to spring up surprises, it’s very difficult to put a hand on any name.
The new Chief Minister should not only appeal to the support base of the BJP composed of Lingayats, OBCs, SCs/STs, and Brahmins, they should also be acceptable to all the factions.
Lingayats, accounting for 17 percent of the state’s population, have been staunch supporters of the BJP. The state has had seven Chief Ministers from the community. It remains to be seen whether the party appoints another Lingayat as the new Chief Minister or it goes with a Vokkaliga (12 percent) to break the hold the Gowdas enjoy over the community.
Janata Dal (Secular) still commands a 15-20 percent vote share, dominates the Old Mysuru region, and has emerged as the kingmaker in recent polls.
The BJP may attempt to broaden its social coalition and move from a LIBRA (Lingayats + Brahmins) party to AHINDA party without the ‘A’ (Dalits and Backward Classes) to make a dent in the Congress’ vote bank.
In the north, the party has successfully transitioned from having predominantly upper-caste Chief Ministers to OBC Chief Ministers, banking on the TINA factor for the Brahmins.
Could the BJP deploy a similar but risky strategy in Karnataka banking on the fact that the Lingayats have no option but to back the BJP? Or will it follow the Maharashtra model of appointing a Brahmin which has a minuscule population in the state?
Yediyurappa will be around till he rehabilitates his sons in the party. He has been pushing for a big role for his younger son who had been running the show in the state.
It remains to be seen whether he has been able to strike a deal for BY Vijayendra who Yediyurappa wishes to project as the new Lingayat leader and successor to his political legacy.
It will also be a test of Modi-Shah’s preference for low-profile leaders in states as it helps in a smooth transition. Will they continue with the trend or appoint a strong regional satrap?
The new Chief Minister has to pivot change and take charge of the party in the next polls for which they would need the support of all factions.
All in all, it is a positive development for the BJP in Karnataka which could boost its prospects in 2023.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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