At a time when the Opposition parties are vehemently protesting the implementation of Special Intensive Review (SIR) in Bihar as a “dangerous move” against democracy, the topic of illegal migration has returned to the politics of Tripura, surrounded on three sides by Bangladesh. The length of its international border is 856 kilometres, or 84% of its total border.
In July, a delegation of TIPRA Motha, led by its founder and royal scion Pradyot Debbarma, met with the Election Commission of India (ECI) to address illegal immigration and demanded the implementation of SIR in the state. The party is a constituent in the Manik Saha-led BJP government.
A few days later, a delegation of Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), another partner in the BJP-led government, met with the ECI early August to demand an SIR. This appeared more like an attempt by IPFT to stay politically relevant after having lost much of its support base to Motha.
Ranjit Debbarma, a Motha legislator, went a step further by demanding the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The legislator is a former militant leader and led the All Tripura Tiger Forces (ATTF), an outfit known for creating terror by mercilessly killing innocent Bengalis in the state.
To be clear, the demand for NRC isn't new in the state — various tribal parties have raised it time and again.
TTAADC elections draw near
The crucial elections for the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) are only months away, with voting likely by March next year. The 30-member body administers around two-thirds of the state's area and one-third of its population. Its jurisdiction is distributed non-contiguously across the state, with 84% of its population belonging to Scheduled Tribes (STs), making it politically crucial.
With 20 seats reserved for the tribals in the state assembly, and tribals influencing at least an additional 15 seats, the control of the tribal body becomes crucial, as the path to the state's power runs through this belt.
Since 2021, Motha has been in power in the TTAADC. Despite Motha being a partner in the government, BJP still sits on the opposition benches in the ADC. Under Motha’s rule, allegations of scarcity of water, poor road maintenance, unemployment, food shortages, and power outages have plagued the tribal belt.
Retired employees of the ADC haven't got their pension payments for the last 19 months. In the last four years, the Village Committees — similar in functions to gram panchayats — have seen no fresh elections. The last Village Committee elections were held in 2016. As a result, these Village Committees are run by ad hoc committees, usually dominated either by the Motha or the BJP, depending on which party is stronger in the area. This clearly reflects a weakening of democratic processes in the tribal belt. The state government and the State Election Commission (SEC) are responsible for this, though Motha can't escape blame entirely.
Motha faces anti-incumbency sentiment
While it is true that Motha has repeatedly demanded the pending Village Committee elections, it is also true that these demands haven't always been strong enough to pressurise the government. On the ground, there have been hardly any strong protest movements pushing for it, despite the party’s dominance in the tribal belt.
Though lately, there have been some signs of anti-incumbency against the Motha. Sensing an opportunity, the main Opposition CPM’s tribal wing Gana Mukti Morcha (GMP) has been working at the grassroots level to regain its lost base by raising people-centric demands. So far, GMP’s efforts have met with limited success.
The Motha, however, doesn't want to take any chance as it recognises the need to address the growing anti-incumbency sentiment on the ground. The issue of illegal immigration still evokes strong feelings among the tribals, who once formed the majority in the state but are now reduced to a minority due to the large-scale influx of Bengali Hindu refugees from the then East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).
The issue of illegal immigration
No doubt that illegal immigration remains a threat to the state’s security. Although greatly reduced, it continues to happen through the porous India-Bangladesh border. There have also been many cases of illegal Bangladeshis being arrested by the security forces. However, extrapolating these instances to spread fear of a looming demographic threat is a far-fetched claim.
According to Census data, Tripura’s population grew by 76.86% during 1951-61, 36.28% during 1961-71, 31.92% during 1971-81, and 34.30% during 1981-91. In the subsequent decades, the decadal growth declined sharply, falling to 16.03% in 1991-2001 and 14.8% in 2001-11.
Interestingly, a closer look at the decadal growth of STs compared with non-STs reveals that the former experienced slightly higher growth.
Between 1991 and 2001, the growth rate for STs was 16.41% compared to 15.86% for non-STs. Similarly, between 2001 and 2011, STs recorded a growth rate of 17.45%, while non-STs grew by 13.66%.
Data doesn’t back the claim of large-scale influx
These figures clearly suggest that concerns about large-scale influx from Bangladesh are largely unfounded today, particularly with the India-Bangladesh border now almost entirely fenced with barbed wire.
Despite this, the reality is that the issue of illegal immigration is exploited by the tribal- backed parties in the state to push their own political agenda among the ordinary tribals. TIPRA Motha is also following the same playbook by pushing identity politics over governance.
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