Meghalaya goes to the polls on February 27. Since December last year there has been a churning never witnessed in the past. Even for seasoned journalists, keeping track of the party-hopping MLAs is a lot of grunt work. Just when we assumed that a wannabe MLA had settled into 'party A' and found his/her way around, bang comes the news that the person has switched over to 'party B'.
Revolving Door Parties
People here have likened a political party to a house where the candidate is invited and then asked to partake of his/her lunch. If the food is not appetising the person switches over to another party. The lunch of course is a metaphor for the money a political party is able to sponsor the candidate with.
Thirty MLAs of the 60-member Meghalaya Assembly have switched their alliances to different parties but mainly from the Congress to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and National People's Party (NPP). Some from the NPP have switched over to the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and some like former bureaucrat HM Shangpliang have switched parties twice over in a span of two years: Once from the Congress to the TMC and then from the TMC to the BJP.
Even a shrewd political observer could miss the point of this switchover for how does a person first leave the Congress to join the TMC which apparently is at loggerheads with the BJP and then leave the TMC to join the BJP. It’s a political churning of a different kind and it is not at all based on ideology. The question therefore is why have they joined those parties.
Business Of Politics
The leader of a certain political party who has now been cooling his heels in Shillong for over a month said to me: “I cannot understand Meghalaya’s politics. So, you give the ticket to a particular candidate and also assure that whatever major expenses are incurred during the campaign will be borne by the party but the candidate says, ‘No, I need at least Rs 45 lakh hard cash as well, to keep with me for exigencies.’”
It would seem, therefore, that at least a few candidates have turned the election into a kind of business, which is nothing new though. They are given a certain amount by the party, spend a quarter of it and really don’t care if they win and keep the rest for launching some small business after the elections are done and dusted. And no apologies for doing that.
Too Close To Call
What every journalist visiting Meghalaya right now wants to know are the combinations and permutations post March 2. Even the best of us who have seen elections since 1988 find it difficult to play psephologist although as editor, one doesn’t sit in the comfort of an office but has to trudge to the back of beyond, return in the evening to write a report or file one from wherever one has to spend the night.
Take the Congress, once the numero uno party in Meghalaya but now a shadow of its former self, after former Chief Minister Mukul Sangma ditched the party in 2021 and walked away with 12 of its 17 MLAs to join the TMC. Five other MLAs were suspended from the party after they decided to support the NPP-led MDA (Meghalaya Democratic Alliance) government.
With not a single sitting MLA and yet to recover from the shock of losing all its legislators, the party has to start from scratch. The big question is how the party's fresh faces will fare this time. There is even a young IIM graduate who has worked in the corporate world and appears to have a grip on the politics of the state and understands Meghalaya’s need for an economic vision.
So how will the polling scene finally look like post-March 2, 2023? The BJP is unlikely to get more than 5-6 seats. The Congress might win 10-12 seats at best. The NPP about 15, the TMC too at 15, UDP 10-12 seats. Finally, the party that is quickest at tying up a coalition will win the game of thrones even while their rivals will try playing a desperate Russian roulette.
Patricia Mukhim is Editor, The Shillong Times, and author of the book "Waiting for an Equal World". Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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