Haryana’s election heads for a bipolar face-off

As the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections approach, scheduled for October 5, the focus is squarely on the two major contenders: The Indian National Congress (INC) and the BJP.

Congress aims to consolidate the Jat vote, which makes up about 25 percent of the state’s population, while leveraging a decade of anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP.

In contrast, the BJP is working to bring OBCs and other castes under one umbrella, hoping to secure a third consecutive term. OBCs constitute a significant 36 percent of Haryana's population, though they have historically not voted as a cohesive bloc. To address this, the BJP appointed Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC, as the chief minister of the state in March this year.

If BJP succeeds, it will have successfully replicated Kanshi Ram’s caste-politics formula in Haryana which essentially means to mobilise the marginalised majority (Bahujan) to achieve political power.

Numbers do not tell the whole story

However, to achieve this, BJP has to overcome a challenge. Like in neighbouring Punjab, in Haryana the marginalised voters for economic reasons are tethered to the landing-holding Jat community. They work in their farms and get their fair share when the crop is harvested. Thus the political influence the Jats wield in this state is way more than their population. And to helm the Congress campaign there are many Jat leaders like the two-time chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Randeep Surjewala, Birender Singh, and others.

Main issues: Crime, unemployment, inflation

One of the biggest issues in Haryana is the sudden rise in extortion and murder cases in the last year. Recent incidents include the February 25 killing of INLD state chief Nafe Singh Rathee, the March 10 murder of liquor trader Sunder Malik near Murthal in Sonepat, a ransom demand of Rs 5 crore from INLD’s Ram Bhagat Gupta by firing shots outside his Mahindra showroom in Hisar on June 24. In yet another incident, a 35-year-old Gurugram-based businessman was gunned down at a hotel near Lakhan Majra town in Rohtak on February 28. Most of these ransom calls were made from abroad.

Unemployment is another major issue in Haryana. Youngsters for want of jobs are opting to go abroad, particularly from Karnal, Kurukshetra, Ladwa and Kaithal. Like Punjab, many IELTS institutes have popped up in the state in the last five years selling dreams of opportunities abroad.

And pinching the pocket of the common man is the inflation rate in Haryana. Until October 2023, Haryana along with Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh was among the only states with higher retail inflation figures than the national average every month. This year it has slightly improved. Also, the impact of the 2020-2021 anti-farm bill protests still resonates among rural voters, particularly Jats and Ahirwals, and not to forget the wrestlers' protest at the Jantar Mantar which was spearheaded by Vinesh Phogat, Bajrang Punia and Sakshi Malik.

The Congress party has boosted its campaign by signalling that Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia will be party candidates from Julana and Badli assembly seats respectively in the upcoming polls.

Given the current political landscape, both the BJP and Congress are adopting distinct strategies to sway voters. The BJP is focusing on the benefits of its "double-engine" governance, showcasing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s accomplishments of infrastructural development projects and national security. Their campaign portrays them as the party best equipped to tackle these issues, appealing to voters who prioritise strong leadership and security. However, in rural areas, the BJP is facing significant challenges in persuading voters to support them.

In contrast, Congress is highlighting unresolved issues such as rising crime, unemployment, farmers' distress, and inflation while criticising the BJP's decade-long rule. To enhance its electoral chances and challenge the BJP's dominance, Congress is considering an alliance with the AAP. The party is actively conducting door-to-door campaigns and public rallies to connect with voters with the slogan Haryana maange hisab.