Ever since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India and, Gujarat has become the cynosure of economic and, even, political events. Point in case, the discussions and debates on the ‘Gujarat Model’ of development. As Gujarat goes to the polls, what is making this election interesting is the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a third party in a state that has traditionally seen contests between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress.
The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has put on quite a show in terms of the campaign. Irrespective of the poll outcome, this is a high-stakes election for AAP. The result will determine Kejriwal’s political trajectory, and it will have an implication on how equations in the anti-BJP space evolve in the run-up to the 2024 general elections.
The Congress held a magnificent campaign in 2017, and fell short of just 20 seats to form the government. This year, however, the grand old party is almost absent from the campaign, and AAP has made the most of this.
In states where the Congress has lost its political relevance, it is not the BJP which has directly benefitted, but other parties, like the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, and AAP in Delhi.
Kejriwal is trying to do the same in Gujarat. His calculation could be to replace the Congress as the main opposition party in the state. If AAP does so, it would be a great accomplishment for this decade-old party.
Results in Gujarat will be crucial because it would prepare AAP to go to other states where the bipolar contest is between the BJP and the Congress.
Gujarat is also important because this is the first state election where AAP will be in direct contest with the BJP. Both in Delhi and Punjab, its rivals were the Congress. The Gujarat election results will demonstrate AAP’s ability to challenge the BJP.
AAP already rules two crucial states in the Hindi heartland, and has two MLAs in Goa. It is the only political party besides the BJP and the Congress to govern two states. AAP will become a national party even if it only wins a few seats in Gujarat. It is, without question, a remarkable accomplishment on its own.
It means that AAP's Gujarat performance will significantly impact opposition politics. Earlier, it was always believed that no successful anti-BJP coalition could happen without the Congress. If AAP wins even some seats, and gets a double-digit vote share, Kejriwal’s importance in national politics will unquestionably rise. Therefore, for any opposition alliance in the run-up to 2024 to be successful Kejriwal will have to play an important role in it.
After its historic victory in Punjab, AAP launched its mega-expansion plan. The success in Gujarat will open new doors of expansion for the party. AAP has already started organisation-building in Congress-ruled Rajasthan, which goes to the polls in 2023. Rajasthan is adjacent to Gujarat, and the Congress is a divided house in the state. Similarly, the BJP is experiencing increasing internal strife in the state, making it an ideal target for Kejriwal to pursue. Post-Gujarat polls, AAP will also get an opportunity to consider venturing into a large state like Maharashtra, where the party already has some presence at the local level.
The Gujarat election results are crucial for Kejriwal to reclaim his party's anti-corruption stand. Recently, AAP has faced rampant allegations of corruption in Delhi. The Enforcement Directorate sentenced AAP minister Satyendar Jain to prison, and repeated video leaks have harmed AAP's credibility. Meanwhile, the alleged excise policy scam has cast a shadow on Delhi's Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia. The ED and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested top AAP functionary Vijay Nair in relation to this scam. Kejriwal has rubbished all these allegations. If the Gujarat poll results go in AAP’s favour, it will add credence to AAP’s claim that the corruption allegations are falsified claims by its political rivals.
Kejriwal would like to forget his earlier contest against Modi. This time, however, he is more prepared, and is a seasoned politician now. The Gujarat election is critical for AAP because it will shape the party's future, and will open up this new political alternative to more Indians.
Sayantan Ghosh is a doctoral research scholar in media and politics. Twitter: @sayantan_gh. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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