Four takeaways from Raisina Dialogue on contemporary geopolitics

Caught between Trump’s openly hostile approach to Europe and to Ukraine, China’s rise and the Russian threat, it is no surprise that a first ever visit of EU College of Commissioners together to India predated Raisina by a couple of weeks. If Trump furthers the tariff and regulatory contestation with Europe, all indications are that the latter will embrace India more closely. Europe has historically sided with the US (collectively the West) in targeting India through multilateral export control regimes. However, in a break with history, this time Europe would seek India out as a partner given their alignment on open technology and global institutions/multilateralism. India-Europe relationship can even act as a pillar of stability in times of geopolitical upheaval. India would do well to actively reciprocate the European overtures and build a close partnership over defence and open technology.

Supply chain security and an opportunity for India

The discussions at Raisina were heavily tilted towards supply chain warfare, that is, tariffs, export controls and other manifestations of supply chain contestations between the US, China and others. But due attention was not paid to supply chain security concerns animating the developing countries. Israel's sophisticated supply chain attack in Lebanon in September 2024 and the US banning connected car technologies from China earlier this year have shifted how we look at supply chains- from just in time (efficiency) and just in case (resilience) to just to be secure (security). Developing countries, which lack the state capacity of ensuring supply chain security and are also too dependent on global supply chains (especially for high-tech), are particularly susceptible. Raisina offered a great opportunity to ideate on how the developing world can navigate supply chain security concerns without jeopardising their economies. But this was not given due attention.

Similar to India championing digital public infrastructure, the country has an opportunity to offer solutions to tackle supply chain security concerns for the developing world. India can push for the creation of an Open Technology Maitri that the author of this article along with Pranay Kotasthane has argued for in a recent article for India’s World magazine. The Open Technology Maitri could help “reduce asymmetric vulnerabilities and develop alternatives that can provide insurance against the bottlenecking of proprietary technologies.” Further, it could assist in “realising the vision of techno-strategic autonomy by advancing legal and policy pathways for open tech deployment and uptake in developing countries.”

Dealing with the ‘new’ West

Hungary's foreign minister was ably representing the new right that has swept parts of the West. If one didn't know who he was, one could have easily mistaken him for a MAGA (Make America Great Again) figure. Hungary's approach is simple (and controversial)- no war, no migration and no gender propaganda. On the Ukraine war, he lamented that had Europe supported Hungary's ceasefire proposal for Russia-Ukraine war (much before Trump 2.0), far less people would have died and Ukraine would have lost less territory. He was not properly challenged by anyone on the panel on any of his views.

Hungry is representative of the new Western reality. Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar spoke at Raisina about accepting the reality of tariffs and sanctions. In a similar vein, countries need to accept the reality of immigration barriers going up. India, which is a major exporter of talent across the skill spectrum, needs to find ways to convert the immigration crisis in the West to its advantage. Exploring rotational labour mobility arrangements proposed by Lant Pritchett or instituting mechanisms to retain and attract talent are the way forward.

Battle over minds

Raisina saw participation by senior military leadership in India, including by the Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan. Gen Chauhan in his contribution to the panel discussion on ‘Verses and Wars: Navigating Hybrid Theatres’ dedicated significant attention to cognitive warfare. He made some important points: First, while wars were about physical geography and human geography earlier, today they are about cognitive geography. Second, democratic governments are hostage to public opinion — it is then crucial to ask who is shaping them. As I have argued previously for Moneycontrol, information warfare poses serious challenges to India; Gen Chauhan’s views should galvansie concrete actions to tackle the same.