The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has held three meetings so far and also resolved to work out a seat adjustment pact to ensure “as far as possible”a one-on-one contest against the ruling BJP. The Opposition parties are looking to unite on at least 400 Lok Sabha seats.
Their guiding thought banks on the premise that a 37.36 percent vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections had brought BJP to power because others were divided. So, a one-on-one contest will require BJP to garner 51 percent votes to win in 2024.
While the BJP indeed has been oiling its poll machinery to corner 51 percent vote share since 2014, India’s electoral history sheds light that crossing the halfway mark in vote share may remain just a theoretical goal of popularity. Congress, riding the sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, had polled 49.01 percent vote share in 1984 to bag 404 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, BJP won 282 seats with just 31 percent vote share. The first-past-the-post system makes such calculations inconclusive.
Keeping vote share aside for a while, the stated objective of forcing a one-on-one contest on the BJP fails the reality test. Here are the five reasons why this objective may remain elusive for the Opposition alliance.
Reason 1: India Isn’t Tamil Nadu, Kerala
The stated objective of the Opposition essentially seeks to replicate the electoral contest model prevailing in Tamil Nadu and Kerala on the national level. The two states have a two front-based political system including pre-poll alliances, and the BJP is unsuccessfully trying hard to find a base there as a third front.
However, the Hindutva ideology isn’t on the margins in most other states, unlike in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and BJP has made alliances or ensured neutrality in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Northeast states.
What the INDIA alliance aims to be striving for is creating a seamless front. But the acceptability of ‘front” politics and pre-poll alliances is untested in most states. Even in Tamil Nadu, DMK hasn’t admitted any of its allies like Congress, VCK or Left parties in the state cabinet.
Reason 2: In Many Seats, It Is BJP Vs Congress
The idea of one-on-one contest or direct fight may remain a BJP versus Congress affair. This has been seen for decades in the states of Gujarat (26), Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (29), Chhattisgarh (11), Goa (2), Uttarakhand (5), Himachal Pradesh (4), and Haryana (10). The total number of such seats comes to 112 Lok Sabha seats.
The direct contest between the BJP and the Congress in these seats has been taking place for decades and Congress has lost leaders in these states to factionalism who now contest separately. The Opposition alliance doesn’t change the situation much.
Given the Congress weakness at the national level and the lack of traction for opposition parties in these states, a one-on-contest is essentially a BJP vs Congress affair.
Reason 3: National Ambitions Of INDIA Constituents
Aam Aadmi Party forayed into the assembly elections in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa and made gains in Haryana local body polls. To expect that AAP will forego its national ambition and contest Lok Sabha elections only from Delhi and Punjab may prove to be a tall order.
Trinamool Congress too has similar ambitions, and the ruling outfit in West Bengal has contested state polls in Goa, Manipur, Tripura, Assam, and Odisha. Mamata Banerjee’s close aides have long been arguing that the day TMC wins more than 50 Lok Sabha seats, the party will stake claim for the Prime Minister’s post in the event of a fractured mandate.
Reason 4: INDIA Alliance Isn’t Whole Of Opposition
Union Home minister Amit Shah pointedly told AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi during the debate on the no confidence motion that he should work for a separate front as he has been left out by the INDIA Alliance.
In fact, Uttar Pradesh (80), Karnataka (26), Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Odisha (21), Punjab (13), and Delhi (7) evidently rule out the prospects of one-on-one contests because of the presence of multiple players.
Thus, 191 Lok Sabha seats may witness three-way or even four-way contests in the next general elections. The INDIA Alliance doesn’t include Bahujan Samaj Party (UP), JD(S) (Karnataka), BRS and AIMIM (Telangana), TDP and YSRCP (Andhra Pradesh) or BJD (Odisha).
Seat-sharing for Delhi and Punjab will be tough. If last performance is a criteria, AAP may get to contest from only two Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, while Arvind Kejriwal has said that his party would win all the seven seats from the national capital.
A similar situation prevails in Punjab where AAP routed Congress to form the government in 2022. The Congress in these two places, especially Punjab, cannot afford to give AAP the upper hand.
Reason 5: Elections And Political Careers
The idea that the Opposition alliance can do a one-seat one-candidate contest against the BJP is impractical for yet another reason. History shows that each parliamentary constituency has at least four candidates nursing the turf for years.
Congress, SP, BSP and RLD unitedly contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections against BJP, but local candidates who found that their prospects suffered because of the alliance worked against the official nominees.
A similar situation is likely to play out in Maharashtra and Bihar where too many formidable local leaders of the MVA alliance may have to sit out. They would be worried that the leader who gets the ticket would become more powerful than them.
Uddhav Sena, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Congress could go for 16 seats each in the adjustment pact. Bihar may also present a similar situation as JD(U), RJD, Congress, and the Left will have to work out a pact for 40 seats and deny demands for tickets by several of their leaders.
The likelihood of such disgruntled leaders joining the fray as independent candidates or even joining smaller outfits is very high, especially given how the opposition parties are out of power in most states and their leadership is unable to dictate terms for that reason.
Manish Anand is a senior Delhi-based journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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