Far-right parties claimed the largest share of votes in France and Italy and came second in Germany in the recent elections for the European Parliament. Granted, centrist parties are still in charge: The European Union’s policies and legislative agenda are set by the European Council and the European Commission, the populist right is far from united, and new exits from the union are not on the agenda. Even so, the results are disturbing — and French President Emmanuel Macron’s abrupt decision to dissolve his own legislature in response to the vote could well make matters worse.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won 31.5% of French votes for the European Parliament. Macron’s Renaissance party, part of the centrist Renew bloc, won less than half as many. Presumably Macron hopes voters will be more cautious in the new domestic ballot he’s called for around the end of this month. Polls say his gamble might not pay off. If they’re right, France will face a spell of “cohabitation” and gridlock. Macron would still be president, but this is not a formula for effective government.
The implications aren’t confined to France. The prospect of paralysis in Europe’s second-largest economy — a country that has stood for European ambition and, more recently, has been a bulwark of support for Ukraine — is bleak for the EU as a whole. And Giorgia Meloni’s success in Italy suggests that populists, given an opening, are capable of cementing their power.
The setback for European centrism and new political uncertainty in France underscore the need to refresh the EU’s system of governance and adopt a more insistent focus on delivering tangible benefits to citizens. To be sure, much of this work falls to national leaders, whose performance in many cases has been far from impressive. But the EU’s institutions themselves have an important part to play.
Europe’s economies continue to be dragged down by too much regulation and weaknesses in the EU’s single market. EU decision-making remains cumbersome and opaque. To prevent gridlock, and to accommodate the desire to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, the EU needs to allow more qualified majority voting and encourage the use of “enhanced cooperation” so that groups of willing member states can move forward with policies without being held back by others.
Rebuilding voter trust is paramount. Disinformation spread by far-right voices through TikTok and other social media needs to be challenged more effectively. Promises to control immigration need to be kept. Ambitious climate pledges backed by vague or inordinately expensive policies need to be more competently explained and delivered. Voters are unsettled. The EU’s leaders must show they are listening.
Europe’s electoral shift was anything but inevitable. It’s the consequence of poor leadership. Voters’ concerns on immigration, economic stagnation and the costs of the green transition aren’t unwarranted. When governments persist in ignoring such worries, voters get impatient, then angry. Centrist politicians need to respond — not with erratic electoral maneuvers like the one Macron appears to be attempting, but with close attention and coherent, consistent policy. If they fail, there’ll be worse to come.
Credit: Bloomberg
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