Despite Patna start, seat sharing and Index Of Opposition Unity will trouble the incipient coalition

The electoral strength of the 15 parties matches the support base of the BJP. While it is true that the united opposition should be able to pose a challenge to the BJP, defeating BJP in 2024 is not going to be easy despite these 15 parties coming together. There are a few explanations which I would like to offer why, despite opposition unity, defeating BJP in 2024 may not be easy.

Despite the reasonably good start at Patna, several tricky issues remain unresolved amongst these parties. Even if one leaves aside the question of who would be the face of this united opposition against the BJP, there would be the need for a convener or a coordinator to liaise between different parties on various issues. I assume, this may not be difficult, but what is going to be extremely challenging is to work out a seat-sharing arrangement between parties which have agreed to join this united opposition platform.

Devising Seat Sharing Formula 

Though Congress, Trinamool Congress and the Left joined the Patna conclave, the three share a troubled relationship, especially in Bengal. While Congress and Left would want their share of seats to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha in Bengal, the TMC may be unwilling to concede a sizable number of seats to them citing its dominant position in the state.

But an alliance of TMC, Congress and Left would be necessary to prevent the forward march of the BJP in the state. If these three had formed an alliance in 2019, going by the arithmetic BJP’s tally of Lok Sabha seats won would have declined to 8 from 18.  BJP would have lost Raiganj, Balurghat, Malda Uttar, Bangaon, Barrackpore, Hooghly, Jhargram, Bishnupur and Bardhaman-Durgapur Lok Sabha seats.

No seat-sharing formula is foolproof. There could be either the vote share of the last Lok Sabha (2019) or the last assembly election in the particular state as the benchmark for a seat-sharing formula. Take Congress and Aam Aadmi Party whose relationship has soured even before opposition unity has been achieved or a common front formed.

Assuming that both AAP and Congress are part of a common front against the BJP for the 2024 contest, Delhi and Punjab pose problems. Going by the vote share of parties in 2019, Congress would be at an advantageous position as Congress polled more votes compared to AAP, both in Punjab and Delhi, during the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

But if one goes by the vote share of Assembly elections, AAP would have an upper hand over the Congress. The question would remain, which party is going to bend how much while working out the seat-sharing arrangement.

Spurned Parties Like BSP Matter

There were also important absentees from the Patna meeting. Some parties were not invited and some parties decided to skip the meeting. Excluding parties from the opposition alliance would bring down the index of opposition unity which is going to be essential for challenging the BJP in 2024 as BJP had won 226 Lok Sabha seats by a margin of more than one lakhs votes in 2019.

When BSP contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election in alliance with Samajwadi Party, it won only 10 Lok Sabha seats, but it has pockets of influence across the country with some concentration of vote. Had BSP formed an alliance with Congress in 2019, it would have meant the two adding 12 more seats to their combined tally of 62 (Congress 52, BSP 10 seats). Absence of some political parties from the alliance can affect the chances of the opposition being able to better challenge the BJP.

While it is important for the parties which attended the Patna meeting to remain united, it is equally important to bring more parties into the united opposition fold, if the united opposition is planning to pose a serious challenge to the BJP in 2014.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.