Back-to-back dry winters threaten Kashmir’s apple harvest

However, this winter, growers have found not only bore wells and tube wells drying up in apple-producing areas, but also the streams and springs that supply water to the orchards have run dry, leaving them facing a bleak future.

Once a lifeline for horticulture and agriculture, Kashmir’s well-known springs and streams were either dangerously low or altogether dry this winter. For instance, the famous Achabal Mughal Garden in Anantnag, south Kashmir, a 17th-century masterpiece constructed by Noor Jahan, the wife of Mughal Emperor Jahangir, had dried up entirely for the first time in its existence.

Even J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah issued a dire warning about a serious water crisis this year, emphasising that it has been getting worse for years and that both the government and the public must take action.

The Irrigation & Flood Control Department's Kashmir Flood Watch reported that the snowless winter and prolonged dry spell have plunged water levels in Kashmir's reservoirs to critical lows, with the Jhelum River, lifeline for Valley’s agriculture and horticulture sector flowing below its reduced zero level.

Rising Climate Concerns

The prolonged dry weather in Kashmir dried up springs, streams, and groundwater before the onset of summer, when high-density apple orchards exactly require water through the drip irrigation system.

Since January of this year, when snow and rainfall are most crucial, the region’s water problem has gotten worse due to a 79 percent rainfall shortfall, according to the J&K Meteorological Department, compared to the usual precipitation of 140 mm.

Similarly, Jammu and Kashmir saw a 35 percent rainfall deficit from June 1 to September 25, last year, with Shopian district, known as apple town of Kashmir facing an 81 percent shortfall, recording only 352.7 mm of precipitation against the normal 542.7 mm.

Kashmir’s weather analysts linked the water scarcity in J&K to historic rainfall deficits during the past five years, with 2024 being the driest year in the past 50 years.

The analysts found that rainfall in 2024 totalled to just 870.9 mm, a 29% deficit from the usual average of 1232.3 mm, and close to the 802.5 mm recorded in 1974, marking the fifth consecutive year of below-normal precipitation in J&K. Precipitation levels have been declining in the Himalayan region, with a 7% deficit in 2023 (1146.6 mm), a 16% deficit in 2022 (1040.4 mm), a 28% deficit in 2021 (892.5 mm), and a 20% deficit in 2020 (982.2 mm).

For several years, climate change driven by global warming has disrupted the growth of the Valley's key crop, apples, which rely on moderate temperatures and a chilling period to thrive, resulting in continuous setbacks for orchardists.

Snow plays a crucial role in apple cultivation by providing essential chilling hours for bud formation, while also acting as a moisture retainer, vital for healthy crop growth in the Valley.

Snow not only ensures moisture retention in the soil but also helps protect apple trees from potential disease-causing germs, playing a vital role in their overall health and growth.

Despite the use of drip irrigation, the dry weather last year still impacted growth of high-density apples, as rainfall is essential for the development of crops.

Economic Fallout for Apple Growers

Just before the harvest season, scanty rains disrupted apple growth and ripening, causing delays in the picking season by several weeks, which led to significant losses for both growers and traders in the Valley’s fruit industry.

Last winter, apple-rich regions in north and south Kashmir, known for their high-quality produce, experienced a sharp decline in fruit quality, with reduced juiciness, increased pest infestations, and apple scalds, all caused by the prolonged dry weather conditions.

According to scientists from the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Kashmir, the dry winter season exacerbates the risk of diseases in apple plants, as the absence of moisture weakens the trees, leaving them more susceptible to pests and infections.

Given that seven lakh families depend either directly or indirectly on the apple business, apple growers have issued a warning about an impending economic crisis in the Valley. Citing this year's extended dry winter with an 80% precipitation shortfall in January and February, they have been pleading with the government to take immediate action.

High-density apple varieties bear fruit within the first or second year, compared to the 15 years needed for traditional trees. Varieties like Jeromine, King Roat, Gala Scarlet, and Auvi Fuji reach full production by the fourth or fifth year, reshaping the Valley’s apple industry with harvests in August and September.

Future of Apple Cultivation

The J&K government plans to bring 5,500 hectares of land under high-density apple cultivation by 2026 as part of a modified plantation scheme. With horticulture contributing about 9.5% to the state’s GDP, the initiative aims to boost both the economy and local employment in Jammu and Kashmir.

Apple growers claim that, in contrast to conventional apple trees, high-density apple orchards need a reliable irrigation system that depends significantly on wet spells. But in case of protracted dry weather and intense heat waves the crop quality and quantity would decline.

Establishing high-density apple orchards involves a substantial financial outlay with plant material and drip irrigation systems can cost lakhs of rupees. Many farmers have taken out loans to use the new farming method, but for thousands of growers, a poor harvest brought on by protracted dry weather might spell a financial crisis.