Riding on the slogan “Batenge toh katenge, ek rahenge toh safe rahenge,” Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reinforced his Hindutva appeal in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly by-elections, securing a decisive 7-2 victory over the Samajwadi Party (SP).
This outcome dealt a significant blow to Akhilesh Yadav's PDA (Pichchra, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) caste-based strategy, setting the stage for the 2027 assembly polls.
Of the nine seats contested, the SP managed to retain only two: its strongholds of Karhal and Sisamau, which the party has held for over three decades. However, the biggest setback for SP was the BJP's win in Kundarki, Moradabad, a constituency with a 65% Muslim voter base. BJP's Ramveer Singh defeated SP's Mohammad Rizwan by a massive margin of over 96,000 votes.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath celebrated the victory as an affirmation of his government's policies and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership. "The BJP-NDA's victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly by-elections is a testament to the people's unwavering faith in our double-engine government’s security, good governance, and public welfare policies," he said, expressing gratitude to voters and party workers.
Referring to his “Batenge toh katenge” remark, Yogi reiterated the message of unity under Hindutva, stating, "Hearty congratulations to all the winning candidates! This result reflects the faith people have in our development-centric politics."
Akhilesh's struggles post-Lok Sabha performance
The by-elections were a critical test for SP chief Akhilesh Yadav to maintain the momentum his party gained in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where SP won an impressive 37 seats compared to BJP’s 33 in Uttar Pradesh. However, the SP’s inability to expand its influence beyond traditional strongholds has raised questions about the sustainability of its PDA strategy.
SP MP Dimple Yadav expressed gratitude to voters despite the setback. "I thank everyone who voted under challenging conditions. We respect the people's mandate and will continue to fight for their rights," she said.
Shifting of Dalit votes
The results of the by-elections held for nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh have revealed a significant shift in voting patterns, particularly among Dalit voters. Contrary to the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, Dalits did not overwhelmingly side with the Samajwadi Party (SP). The community appeared divided, with a portion of votes going to Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but a substantial number leaning toward the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The absence of Congress in these bypolls further hurt the INDIA alliance, as traditional Dalit voters refrained from backing SP candidates wholeheartedly.
Congress's absence felt
The camaraderie seen between the SP and Congress during the Lok Sabha elections was missing this time. Disagreements over seat-sharing led Congress to sit out the bypolls. The party had demanded four seats but was offered only two by the SP. Consequently, Congress leaders distanced themselves from the campaign. Despite initially announcing support for SP candidates as part of the INDIA alliance, neither Rahul Gandhi nor Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigned in Uttar Pradesh. This lack of involvement from both the central and state leadership further weakened the alliance's prospects.
Implications for BJP and SP
This by-election win is a significant boost for the BJP after its underwhelming performance in the general elections earlier this year, where the NDA's tally in Uttar Pradesh dropped from 66 seats in 2019 to 36. For Yogi Adityanath, the victory reaffirms his political strategy and leadership ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.
For the SP, retaining Sisamau and Karhal offers some solace, but the losses elsewhere, particularly in Muslim-majority constituencies, highlight vulnerabilities in Akhilesh Yadav’s coalition politics.
The by-election results serve as a bellwether for the evolving political landscape in Uttar Pradesh. While the BJP has reinforced its dominance, the SP faces an uphill battle to consolidate its voter base and sustain its relevance. With both parties eyeing the 2027 assembly elections, the stage is set for an intense political showdown in the state.
Constituency-wise Results
- Kundarki (Moradabad): BJP’s Ramveer Singh defeated SP’s Mohammad Rizwan by over 96,000 votes, marking a significant victory in this minority-dominated area.
- Sisamau (Kanpur): SP’s Naseem Solanki retained the seat, continuing the party’s three-decade hold.
- Karhal (Mainpuri): A bastion of Akhilesh Yadav, SP retained the seat with ease.
- Phulpur (Prayagraj): BJP’s Deepak Patel triumphed over SP’s Mohammad Mustafa Siddiqui.
- Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar): Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Mithlesh Pal won by 29,867 votes, showcasing the RLD’s regional strength.
- Ghaziabad: The seat is BJP bastion. Atul Garg won it for the saffron party last time and Sanjeev Sharma retained the seat for the party.
- Katehri: The BJP also won Katehari seat won, which was by the Samajwadi Party in the last election; Dharmraj Nishad won by over 18,000 votes ahead of the SP's Shobawati Verma.
- Majhawan: BJP's Shuchismita Maurya won against Dr Jyoti Bind of the SP.
- Khair: BJP’s Surendra Diler defeated SP’s Charu Kain.
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