The Modi government's recent move to approve the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the 8th Pay Commission - a step that could raise the salaries of nearly 50 lakh central government employees - is being viewed as both an administrative and a political decision, timed strategically ahead of key state elections.
According to a CNN-News18 analysis, the decision appears to target five poll-bound states - Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala. Except for Bihar, which votes on November 6, the other four will hold assembly elections early next year.
As per the Directorate General of Employment & Training's Census of Central Government Employees (2011), West Bengal has the second-largest share of central government employees (9.13%) after Uttar Pradesh. This makes Bengal the most impacted among the five states, where the BJP is aiming to expand its footprint. The pay revision is also expected to benefit around 69 lakh pensioners nationwide.
Bihar, despite having only 1.65% of central government employees, holds a different kind of influence. The state is home to a significant number of IAS officers serving across India, and a salary hike will likely be welcomed by their families. Moreover, with a strong culture of UPSC preparation among Bihar's youth, the move could resonate positively with aspiring civil servants and young voters.
In Tamil Nadu, where the BJP is still working to consolidate its base, 4.85% of central government employees stand to benefit. A salary increase in the southern state could translate into a more favorable voter sentiment, especially as the party navigates cultural and political challenges there.
Assam, with 2.01% of central employees, is another key state where the BJP hopes to retain power under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. While the party has been in office since 2016, the pay hike could help mitigate any potential anti-incumbency ahead of the polls.
Even Kerala, often a tough political terrain for the BJP, has 1.64% of central employees. Following the party's first-ever Lok Sabha seat win in the state, the pay commission decision could help the BJP bolster its presence further in the assembly elections.
While the official rationale for the pay commission remains administrative, the timing - and the distribution of beneficiaries across poll-bound states - underscores the political calculus behind the move.
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