Why a fierce bypoll clash in UP is keeping Akhilesh Yadav on edge

Anujesh is regarded as a “rebel” within the influential Yadav family and has been a member of the BJP for the past decade. Confident in his ability to sway Yadav voters, Anujesh claims the "lotus will bloom" in Karhal for the first time in two decades, capitalizing on the BJP’s “double engine” narrative of development under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

“The voters are now more aware of the benefits of BJP's double-engine governance,” Anujesh said. “The Shakya community and others are eager to join this bandwagon, envisioning a future with Modi and Yogi at the helm.”

A historic SP stronghold facing BJP’s challenge

Karhal, a constituency with around 3.75 lakh voters, has a majority of Yadavs (approximately 1.3 lakh). Other significant groups include Scheduled Castes (60,000), Shakyas (50,000), Thakurs (30,000), Pal/Bhagel (30,000), Muslims (25,000), Lodhis (20,000), Brahmins (20,000), and Banias (15,000). The SP has historically dominated this seat, winning six out of the last seven elections from 1993 to 2022. BJP’s sole victory here came in 2002, with Sobran Singh Yadav, who later joined the SP.

With BJP attempting to breach this stronghold, the stakes are high for SP to retain its grip. Local journalist Neeraj Mehre explains, “BJP is counting on its 2002 win as a precedent. However, the Yadav community still resonates with the legacy of the Mulayam family for their contributions to the region.”

Akhilesh Yadav, alongside prominent SP leaders including his wife Dimple Yadav, Shivpal Singh Yadav, and Dharmendra Yadav, has been spearheading the campaign for Tej Pratap. Dimple, who represents the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, has been actively involved, organizing meetings and corner sessions to galvanize support. Her presence on the campaign trail underscores the SP family's unity amidst BJP’s attempt to weaken the Yadav vote base.

Tej Pratap, who previously held the Karhal seat from 2014 to 2019, shares familial ties with Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, being married to Lalu's daughter Raj Lakshmi. Initially considered for the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat, Tej Pratap was later replaced by Akhilesh, reflecting SP's trust in his capabilities to retain Karhal.

BJP banks on development narrative and Yadav votes

The BJP’s district president, Rahul Chaturvedi, expressed optimism, stating, “Anujesh Yadav’s decade-long association with BJP will resonate with voters. Under Yogi and Modi’s leadership, Karhal has seen peace and development, and we anticipate a victory by a significant margin.”

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded a Shakya candidate, which could potentially divide the SP’s vote bank among the backward and Dalit communities. Additionally, Chandrashekhar Azad’s entry with a Dalit candidate may further impact the SP’s support base, particularly among the Scheduled Castes.

Despite BJP’s efforts to gain ground in Karhal, the SP remains optimistic about Tej Pratap’s prospects. A local SP leader said, “People here have a deep-rooted respect for Netaji’s (Mulayam Singh Yadav) legacy. BJP makes big promises, but the farmers and youth are disillusioned. Tej Pratap will emerge victorious.”

The by-election on November 20 is expected to be a high-stakes clash, with the BJP intensifying its campaign efforts through senior leaders like Deputy Chief Ministers Brajesh Pathak and Keshav Prasad Maurya. However, SP’s cohesive front and the Yadav family’s influence may prove formidable.