Stubble burning may no longer be the dominant driver of Delhi’s winter smog, but cases across several states have intensified in the last fortnight, even as the geography of farm fires undergoes a sharp shift. A Moneycontrol analysis of state-level data shows that while Punjab’s contribution to crop-residue burning has dropped dramatically in 2025, farm-fire activity has risen in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, complicating the pollution narrative for the National Capital Region.
Punjab, historically the epicentre of stubble burning, has reported just 3,330 fire incidents this year — down from 5,050 in 2024 and 55,000 in 2021. Its share in total farm fires has collapsed from 31 percent last year to 21.3 percent in 2025, and is now less than half its pre-pandemic levels. Haryana too remains subdued, with 464 cases so far, compared with over 3,000 in 2021.
But in Haryana gains have been reversed. In the first seventeen days of November, Haryana reported nearly 1.5-times more farm fires than the previous year.
The decline in Punjab is being offset by a rise elsewhere. Uttar Pradesh has emerged as the second-largest contributor to crop-burning cases this year, reporting 2,556 fires — a three-fold jump from 2022 and the highest since 2020. Its share of total stubble burning has climbed from 9.2 percent in 2024 to 16.4 percent this year.
Rajasthan has recorded 1,706 incidents, up significantly from 1,107 last year and more than double its 2022 count. Its share in national crop burning has risen to 10.9 percent, compared with just 1–2 percent in earlier years. Madhya Pradesh continues to account for the largest block after Punjab, with 7,571 cases so far in 2025 — nearly half the North India’s total.
In effect, the farm-fire map has decentralised sharply. Punjab and Haryana contributed 82–85 percent of stubble burning as recently as 2021. In 2025, that figure has dropped to 24 percent, with UP, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh now making up more than 75 percent of all incidents.
Even as stubble burning becomes more dispersed, Delhi’s air quality remains poor. The city’s average AQI during November 1–17 stood at 350, marginally better than 375 in the same period last year but still in the “very poor” range. In the ten days preceding October, Delhi recorded an AQI of 309, similar to 306 last year, underscoring that the winter deterioration is consistent even when Punjab’s fires decline.
The widening geography makes targeted interventions harder, requiring a multi-state, crop-specific strategy rather than a Punjab-focused response.
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