Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather on April 9 has forecast normal monsoon for India in 2024.
Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be 'normal' to the tune of 102% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month long period from June to September. "The spread of normal being 96-104% of LPA. In its earlier foreshadow released on January 12, 2024, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2024 to be ‘normal’ and retains the same," it said.
The start of the season is expected to be aberrated on account of the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and unequitable for the season, as a whole, said Skymet.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet said: “El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase."
Skymet expects "sufficiently good rains" in the South, West, and Northwest regions. "Core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal will be at risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season," said Skymet.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in the north together make the farm bowl of north India.
Nearly half of India's farmland, which has no irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans.
The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that in the April-June period, various parts of the country could record 10-20 heat wave days compared to the normal four to eight days.
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