India, Egypt set to ratify strategic partnership during Modi’s visit to Cairo

In a sense, this will be a return visit by Modi. Sisi has been to India thrice, including in January. He will revisit New Delhi in September to attend the G20 summit as a special invitee.

Manmohan Singh as India’s prime minister visited Egypt in 2009, mainly to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit. Before that, IK Gujral travelled as Prime Minister to Egypt in 1987.

In January, when Sisi came as the chief guest of India’s Republic Day celebrations, he became the first Egyptian leader to enjoy that honour. Observers described his visit as redolent with the nostalgia of the bonhomie the two countries enjoyed in the 1950s and 1960s, during the era of Egyptian President Abdel Gamal Nasser and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

Sisi’s trip to Delhi was preceded by Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Cairo in September. In May, Indian army chief General Manoj Pande went to Egypt to strengthen defence ties.

Egypt is interested in buying Indian defence equipment such as the Tejas light combat aircraft, Akash short-range surface-to-air missile system, and radars. Some of these deals could be finalised during Modi’s visit.

India sees Egypt as a dominant player in the Red Sea region that could contribute meaningfully to the stability of the Indian Ocean. Over $200 billion worth of India’s imports and exports pass through the Suez Canal that is controlled by Egypt.

During a food crisis in Egypt last year, India supplied the country with 61,000 tonnes of wheat. The supply of wheat and other products to Egypt on a regular basis could be another potential area of cooperation.

Egypt also wants collaboration with India in the pharmaceutical sector and seeks Indian investment in the country. It has offered a special economic zone in the Suez Canal area to attract Indian business to set up shop there.

The two sides want to raise their trade to $12 billion by 2025 from $3 billion currently. Cairo expects an investment of $20 billion from India in the renewable energy sector.

Egypt’s strategic location will allow Indian companies to reach the European Union market through Egypt's free trade agreement with the EU. It can also give India access to markets in West Asia and Africa.

Sudan, Ethiopia

Modi’s visit comes when Egypt has been badly impacted by the war in neighbouring Sudan. A crisis also looms over Egypt after Ethiopia’s decision to build the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which threatens the downstream country.

The war in Sudan has pushed millions of refugees to seek shelter in Egypt. Observers predict the numbers could reach 4 million in the next few months.

In addition, there is a potential crisis over the Nile River water, which Sudan and Egypt rely on heavily for water, food, transportation and agriculture. Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD dam on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile, used to be jointly opposed by Sudan and Egypt. But because of the war, Egypt is left to deal with the challenge on its own.

The wars in Sudan and Ukraine and their impact on the region and beyond, especially in the Global South, are likely to be discussed by Modi and the Egyptian leadership.

Modi has been successful in strengthening India’s ties with most major countries in West Asia. How he elevates India’s relations with Egypt and revives the closeness between the two countries would be watched by many.