Gujarat polls 2017: BJP likely to win, Congress to finish distant second, exit polls suggest

In terms of vote share, the BJP is likely to win 48 percent votes while the Congress would get 39 percent vote share.

According to the Times Now-VMR exit poll, the BJP is likely to retain power in the state with 113 seats. The poll states that Congress is likely to win 66 seats, whereas other candidates are likely to win three seats. In terms of vote share, the BJP is likely to win 47 percent of the votes while the Congress is seen winning 41 percent.

The Cvoter exit poll also said that the BJP would win 111 seats in the state while the Congress would win 71. According to the survey, BJP would bag 47 percent of the votes while the Congress would finish second with 43 percent votes.

The difference of seats between BJP and Congress is lesser according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. The poll suggests that the BJP would win 106 seats, while the Congress would finish with 75 seats. Other candidates would clinch one seat.

However, the Congress would have a vote share of 42 percent compared to BJP's 47 percent vote share. Other candidates could pick up 11 percent of the votes.

According to the exit poll results released by ABP News-CSDS, the BJP is likely to win 117 seats while the Congress would win 64, marginally improving their 2012 performance.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll, the BJP would win 115 seats while Congress would finish distant second with 65 seats.

While most polls suggested that the Congress had improved its tally in north Gujarat, the ruling party continues its dominance in south Gujarat.

In the 2012 assembly polls, the BJP won 115 seats, just short of the two-thirds mark, while the Congress won 61 seats in the 182-member assembly. BJP and Congress had a vote share of 47.90 and 38.90 percent, respectively.

Former chief minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), which was hoping to dent the BJP, ended up winning only two seats. The party was later merged with the BJP.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Janata Dal (United) bagged two and one seat respectively.

Previous trends and opinion polls

Early opinion polls suggested that the BJP was expected to have a cakewalk in its stronghold. However, the trends seem to have reversed over the last three months as the Congress made further inroads into north Gujarat and tapped into discontent in the southern parts of the state. Some opinion polls conducted in the last week of November showed the two major parties to be neck-and-neck in terms of the vote share.

According to the ABP News-CSDS opinion poll released in early December, the ruling BJP was predicted to be winning 91-99 seats while the Congress was expected to bag between 78-86 seats.

The India Today-Axis survey from October 24 said that the BJP was expected to win anywhere between 110 to 125 seats. The Congress was expected to bag 57-65 seats and others could win 0-2 seats.

In August, the ABP News-Lokniti CSDS survey suggested that the saffron party would bag 144-152 seats, while the Congress will have to settle for 26-32 seats. The survey also put BJP's vote share at 59 percent and Congress' vote share at 29 percent.

Key issues in Gujarat

Some of the key issues in the lead up to and during the Gujarat assembly election were the agrarian distress, the Patidar community's demand for reservation in education and government jobs and the trader discontent with respect to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation in southern Gujarat.

Political pundits also feel that a 22-year-long rule by the BJP has led to an anti-incumbency sentiment in parts of the state.

An election exit poll is a survey of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations.

Unlike opinion polls, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted for. However, as the there is no way of verifying the voter's claims, exit polls may not be accurate.