The government is preparing for a second wave of coronavirus infections to hit India in late May or early June as restrictions begin to ease and the government starts "gradual" lifting of the lockdown, sources told The Indian Express.
The government is also hoping that post-May 3, the doubling time of the cases would have increased to 12 days. The Health Ministry on April 20 said the doubling time is now 7.5 days, an improvement from 3.4 days before the lockdown was imposed.
According to the newspaper, the government is hoping that the rate of doubling would increase to 10 days by the end of this week and 12 days by the first week of May.
"... But after that, as we gradually start to open up — the lockdown will definitely not be lifted in one go — there will be a gradual increase (in cases)," a source told the newspaper.
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"We are looking at a second peak in late May or early June, but now that awareness levels are high and people are getting used to the idea of social distancing, masks etc, we do not anticipate the doubling time dipping to below 5 days at that point," the official added.
The government is expecting that the spike in cases might come from urban areas, where the management of cases is less challenging than in rural areas.
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"However as Mumbai, Indore and Chandigarh have shown us, there are so many unforeseen developments in this battle. Sometimes cities that are expected to do well explode, while at other times cities where you expect a problem to happen somehow manage to hold it together," the source said.
According to the report, area-specific lockdown norms might become necessary depending on the cases at least until September.
The report suggests that there is no clarity on the criteria for the lifting of the lockdown post-May 3. While the government's classification of districts into green, orange and red zones is being looked at carefully, officials said that the classification is fragile, since even one case is enough to send a district back into red zone.
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"The broad criteria for lifting restrictions is clear — where the epidemic has been suppressed, there is a certain level of preparedness on the part of the district administration, and people have adjusted to the new normal of social distancing and other behaviour changes," another official said.
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