Perhaps among all the assembly seats going to polls in a week from now, Bihar's Raghopur will the most keenly watched contest. The air in the Yadav stronghold id filled with anticipation, where more than 3.4 lakh voters are aware of the fact that they might be voting for or against the next chief minister.
Their son and heir apparent Tejashwi Yadav, who made his debut from here in 2015 at the young age of 25, has now earned his spurs and been named as “chief ministerial candidate” of the INDIA bloc, which is helmed by his RJD. It also includes the Congress and three Left parties, besides the Vikassheel Insan Party, which promises a chunk of votes of ‘Nishads’, a community of fishermen, whom the ruling NDA also woos with equal intensity. Yadav, who is aiming at a hat-trick from the seat, reminded the people after filing of nomination papers that “this is not a run-of-the-mill election. It is an opportunity to transform Bihar by voting for change”.
How Raghopur votes
Raghopur, part of the Vaishali district, is a predominantly rural constituency. The key issues influencing voters here include agriculture and irrigation concerns, rural infrastructure development, employment opportunities, and access to healthcare and education. Local development projects, electricity supply, road connectivity, and flood management are perennial issues, given the region’s susceptibility to seasonal flooding and infrastructural challenges. The seat has been a stronghold of the Yadav family with Lalu Prasad Yadav winning in 1995 and 2000, Rabri Devi winning in 2005.
The contestants from the seat
The incumbent MLA and leader of the opposition in the Bihar Assembly, Tejashwi Yadav, has been a dominant force in Raghopur. He won the seat in 2015 and 2020, defeating Satish Kumar Yadav on both occasions. A member of the Yadhuvanshi community, Satish Kumar Yadav previously represented the Janata Dal (United) and won the Raghopur seat in 2010, defeating Rabri Devi. He later switched to the BJP and lost to Tejashwi Yadav in 2015 and 2020. The entry of Chanchal Singh from the Jan Suraaj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, could alter the contest's dynamics. Singh's candidacy may draw votes away from both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, making the outcome unpredictable. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also fielded Raju Kumar to give the uncertain fights to the two strongest alliances in Bihar.
The popularity of the Yadavs in Raghopur
The Yadav community, the most populous among all caste groups in Bihar, accounting for more than 10 per cent of the total population, is said to be in a majority in Raghopur, where no candidate has ever won without getting a sizeable chunk of their votes. The rise to prominence of Yadav, who is currently the leader of the opposition, has predictably electrified the community, which believes it is the chance to reclaim the political dominance that they enjoyed till the RJD was voted out of power 20 years ago.
Analysing past outcomes in Raghopur
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Tejashwi achieved a decisive victory in the Raghopur constituency, continuing the family’s enduring political influence in the region. He won in 2015 too. Tejashwi secured 97,404 votes, which accounted for 49.8 percent of the total votes cast. His nearest rival, Satish Kumar of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), received 59,230 votes (30.3 per cent), leaving Tejashwi with a commanding margin of 38,174 votes (19.5 per cent). The results reflect the electorate’s continued trust in the RJD leadership and the personal appeal of Tejashwi in the constituency.
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