Barely three weeks before his term ends, US President Donald Trump extended the ban on skilled immigrant worker visas, such as the H-1B visa, till March 31 extending into the Joe Biden presidency.
This extension pertains to the June 22 proclamation, where he banned the entry of non-immigrant workers such as H-1B, L-1 and J-1 visa holders from entering the US in a bid to protect American jobs Covid-19.
Indians are among the largest beneficiaries of H-1B visas and when the ban was imposed, it impacted them. IT industry body NASSCOM had then commented that the move was “misguided”. Milind Lakkad, EVP and Global Head, Human Resources, TCS, had said then that the visa ban was unfortunate and unfair.
A study by the American research firm Brookings revealed that the June 22 proclamation resulted in a $100 billion loss for Fortune500 companies. Among the Fortune 500 companies are tech firms Amazon, Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Microsoft, and Cognizant Technology Solutions, among the top H-1B employers.
So how badly will the extension of the ban by three months impact IT firms or Indians?
Immigration experts and H-1B visa aspirants expect the extension to have a minimal impact.
The Biden factor
Joel Yanovich, immigration attorney at US-based Murthy Law Firm, said: “I do not believe it (the visa ban extension) would make much of a difference. Presumably, President-Elect Biden would end the visa ban shortly after taking office.”
Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the US on January 20, 2021, barely three weeks from now. Biden, prior to the elections, had promised that he would revoke the visa ban, including the one for skilled immigrant workers, after he assumed charge.
Secondly, due to the pandemic, US consulates are either closed or working at reduced capacity. This has already resulted in huge delays in getting appointments. The US Consulates in India, barring expedited appointment requests, have already cancelled visa interviews for February and March 2021, even for emergency requests.
So, the wait time for visa appointments is already longer and the ban for another couple of weeks is hardly expected to impact a large number of Indians.
Litigation possible
Even if the ban is not revoked, the extension could be sued in US courts. American business groups had filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for banning highly skilled immigrant workers through the June 22 executive order.
The group won the demand for preliminary injunction for the lawsuit, on the grounds that the President exceeded his authority in banning non-immigrant visa holders from entering the US.
In the October 1 order, US District Judge Jeffrey White of Northern District of California, granted preliminary injunction to the plaintiffs and asked the government to process visas with immediate effect.
The relief is applicable to plaintiffs and members of the plaintiff associations. Tech firms that are not part of the plaintiff organisations will not be covered by the ruling.
The lawsuit was filed by the US Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, National Retail Federation, TechNet, a technology organisation whose members include Accenture, Facebook, and Google and Intrax Inc, a California-based cultural exchange firm, in July. TechNet does not have any Indian IT firms listed as members on its website.
Offshoring is gaining precedence
Lastly, a lot of work has already moved offshore and this pace is likely to continue, with or without the visa ban. With remote work gaining traction, most IT firms reported increased offshoring and have said they would continue to offshore employees in the coming months.
So, the impact the extension will have on IT firms will be minimal since the companies have already put in place steps to ensure that project delivery is not affected. This includes offshoring apart from local hiring in the US.
C Vijayakumar, CEO, HCL Tech, told Moneycontrol recently that the company would look at enhancing its fresher strategy in the US and increase offshoring. “Since it has been proven that a lot of onsite requirements can be done remotely, there is going to be more traction for offshore volumes,” he added.
In a recent interaction, Keshab Panda, CEO, L&T Technology Services, said: “Whatever the policy changes the government brings in, (H-1B visa) will not be eliminated completely. The only thing is whatever happens, we need to optimise our workforce accordingly.”
He added that the change going forward would be to create a global company with a local workforce. “That is what we are trying to do,” he added.
The extension of the ban will, however, impact employees who were aspiring to go to the US. Though Biden may revoke the visa ban, with companies changing their strategies, many aspirants who have a valid H-1B visa are worried about their chances to go overseas.
Vikram (name changed), a techie who got his H-1B visa stamped in January 2020, is wondering about his chances of going to the US. He was set to travel to the US in March 2020. But with international travel suspended and the extension of the June 22 proclamation, his travel plans were postponed.
Now with companies increasing offshoring, he says, his move to the US is uncertain. His visa expires in 2022.
There are many like Vikram who are either unable to travel with their valid visa or who have been forced to come back to India as their project ramped down amid the pandemic.
For these techies, the onsite opportunity is uncertain. As Vikram pointed out: “Maybe onsite to the US is only a dream now.”
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
