Tulsian's take on Crompton Greaves, Jain Irrigation & HT Media

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com tells CNBC-TV18 about the sudden upsurge in markets today and how certain stocks like Crompton Greaves, Jain Irrigation and HT Media will fare.Below is the verbatim transcript of SP Tulsian's interview to Anuj Singhal and Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18.Anuj: 8,739 on the index now, do you see new highs in the near future?A: Yes, in fact, when we have been discussing yesterday, we have given a buy call or a positive call on Nifty, at least till this Friday, because let me give you a small background, because if you see the series is of 5 weeks. The advance tax payments are coming on September 15 and markets are closed on September 5 Monday and September 13 Tuesday, so what we have advised to our clients which we have been advising, in fact, yesterday also we have advised and today also advised that play long for this whole week, that means a week yesterday, today and maybe till Friday, but we are expecting that correction will come from Tuesday, that September 6 to 12, because you won’t be surprised to see the massive selling coming in for the advance tax payments in the week beginning September 6.I think that we need to be very tactical in taking a call looking to the events having lined up in the next couple of weeks, but thereafter September 13 as I said markets are closed, Tuesday, September 13 markets are closed, again from September 14, we will not be seeing the effect of the advance tax selling that will get tapered off or will completely go away, market becomes again maybe under owned or maybe the profit booking come to an end, so again take a positive view from September 14. So positive view till this Friday, cautious from week beginning September 6 to September 12 and then again positive view from September 14 to till expiry.Reema: Crompton Greaves, do you want to come in on these numbers and the stock is up 3.5 percent?A: Numbers are good and yesterday also I have said that, I am expecting the better numbers from the company. I think one should not read too much between the expectation of Rs 51 crore and the company having reported of Rs 40 crore, because after the demerger the kind of focus which the company has said now either exiting from the overseas or the European unit business totally and make the company debt free that is a statement having given by the management and that is seen quite positive and if you see the transmission and distribution (T&D) space, the capex plan lined up in T&D and company is having good presence in that space also.This is a pure capital goods company with a strong presence in T&D space in India as well as globally also, so I am keeping a positive view on the stock going forward from here and in fact if you see the kind of run up which we have seen in this last two months also indicates what you call the fund buying or maybe the strong hands holding position in the stock, so yes results are quite decent and maybe this will be seen positive by the market.Reema: Do you think Jain Irrigation could be one of the impacted players. Are there many other Maharashtra based irrigation companies or do you think it’s likely that Jain Irrigation will have a chunk of these orders Rs 6,000 crore?A: Difficult to say whether what kind of percentage of this chunk has been given to Jain Irrigation, but if you see post Q1 numbers, I will say that Q1 has given some positive indications, but the results were not so goods, which warrants a rise of about 16-18 percent post Q1 numbers. So as such the stock was wanting some trigger for the profit booking and that has come in form of the profit booking.But yes two stocks which comes to my mind which can have a negative impact of this, one is Jain Irrigation and second could be EPC Industrie, a M&M Group company, they also have a significant presence in Maharashtra, so one has to really understand what kind of impact of any order cancellation whether awarded to these and the reason for cancellation of these orders are very important, why the government has gone ahead, whether they smell some foul play or maybe something. If any foul play has been smelled then that will again be casting aspiration on the corporate governance issues of these companies as well.Reema: You wanted to come in on HT Media and what could be the possible reason for a 17 percent gain?A: Honestly, no idea of this sudden rise of 15 percent in this last 10 minutes, but yes one can say that this company is strong and the fundamentals are quite intact, but honestly I won’t be able to spell out the reason for this upsurge.Anuj: The other pocket which has been looking quite today is the midcap PSU bank lot. Now is this some sign of over exuberance or is this a space where under ownership, valuations will carry these stocks forward from here on as well?A: It has more to do with under ownership and the kind of trading momentum which we have been seeing. In fact, if you see the trading pattern, if you take the price what was the peak about a month back, since then the stock has been moving in a range and that peak has not got broken in this last maybe 3-4 weeks.Yes, the stocks have all peaked out and those who have been holding the trading positions or maybe the investment positions, because the kind of run up which we have been seeing from the June series, the rally has started from May 27 and generally you don’t see the rally lasting as a trading rally for a very long time, but have been seeing that happening for June, July, August and now in September series, which is very unusual.Maybe, this has to do with under ownership and the strong hold of the people those who have bought these stocks as delivery, because they don’t see any further fall from here, but the upside is also seen having capped, that is why we see this sudden corrections of maybe couple of percentage happening in a week, 3-5 percentage getting corrected in a week and then suddenly it starts moving up by maybe 5-6 percent in a day. So yes entry and exit by those strong hands are only made within a range for the last maybe 2 or 3 weeks in all these PSU banks.