Here are some stock picks from SP Tulsian

In an interview of to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy, fundamental analyst, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his reading and outlook on the market and on various stocks.Below is the verbatim transcript of SP Tulsian's interview with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.Sonia: What is your view on United Spirits? Now there maybe five states that will ban alcohol. How much of an impact do you think it will have on United Spirits' earnings and what do you do with the stock at this price?A: If you go by the poll trend now because to please the women voters -- this has worked about a decade back when Jayalalitha has promised that she will ban the liquor and all the women voters have voted her back in power maybe 15 years back or maybe five years back.If you go typically by the four states, the southern states, you can count five southern states, all are the distributors. Tamil Nadu earns money from this one. They procure all the wines from the breweries and distilleries and then they market it. Can they take that big risk? Going by the trend, I think the politics will prevail over the revenue and maybe that time will come that all states will start thinking of.In Kerala, people are debating that probably this may not be a party, this may not work. Lefts are saying that probably the prohibition is not the required thing which we must include in our poll manifesto. So, only two states you can save. Out of four states -- now we are seeing the ban -- only Gujarat and Bihar is relevant. Let us not talk of the north-eastern states. I am not saying that they are not relevant. The process has started. So this seems to be a big negative and I am more worried because all four states and amongst four states also, Tamil Nadu has the highest liquor consumption.Sonia: In Tamil Nadu in any case United Spirits had exited that business in 2013 and in any case Tamil Nadu was preferring the local brands to USL so there volumes have dwindled quite a bit. So from USL's perspective, don’t you think that this won't impact?A: Now let us go into the background. There was all kind of political clash and all that. That will not happen with Diageo. The other bigger states always procures lower brand and the local brand but there are people who are looking for brands -- Diageo will be having the higher brand. If you prohibit it entirely, the prohibition happens in the state then you won't be able to sell your higher brands as well. If the total prohibition comes in -- what has happened in Bihar they first talked that the foreign liquor will not be banned but then he has given an afterthought that it has to be totally banned. So this is a serious move. If you don’t have a growth -- even 1-2 states like Tamil Nadu, which has a very high consumption, that will be seen as negative. One cannot go in specific reference to USL, overall it will be seen negative for the breweries distillery.Latha: I wanted to ask you about Tata Steel. There is such a barrage of news and chartically all metal stocks have been rising. What is the view on Tata Steel itself?A: If you see this falsification of certification, one may say that the internal audit of the company having initiated by suo moto and then they informed to the serious fraud office of the UK and all sort of things but if you see the implication, 500 customers who are all affected so you cannot say that this is just a two-three percent component of Yorkshire plant, which we have been talking but this will probably put a spook in the wheel of monetisation of the asset. If you see from hereon, definitely they will be having a problem in monetising the assets going forward.We are all not talking of the quantum or anything but this falsification of certificate -- I am at least seeing a serious issue and in anticipation of that the share has gone up so much. Without people even talking of that what kind of monetisations we are looking of. I have not seen any media speaking. In fact I have opened my mind that anywhere between 4.5 billion and 6 billion for the entire operations, two-three plants put together, unless until they monetize that kind of money, I don't think it will be seen as positive.In media, you have not seen the amount having quantified. Suppose if the deal gets happened at USD 3 billion, probably people will say it was on expected lines. Even management said that they are the impaired assets and all because they have no courage that how much they can fetch. You cannot say that my book value has got totally written off, I have impaired the assets and all that because people are looking to pare the debt.Ultimately if you have impaired your assets, if you have written it off, why the debt have not got reduced from the balance sheet of the company. So, now even if from the impaired assets on a zero book value, still people are looking to monetize a substantial amount to pare down your debt because we will not be having other -- if you are exiting from 10 million tonne of your 17 million tonne, forget 7 million tonne whether to one party or two party or three party, doesn’t matter and you are exiting at a lowest cycle when the sector is moving. You have a threat continuing of China. I am not very hopeful but the kind of gung-ho, which we have seen last week, stock having moved from Rs 300 to Rs 325 because that has also made the stocks to move in an overbought zone but this falsification of certificate should not be taken it so lightly.Latha: Anything on Sun Pharma that you want to speak about or any of the drug stocks?A: Not very positive. Yes, they have received the approval for post surgery drug which has a market of about USD 400 million but I don’t think that these can change the overall perspective or maybe the view on the big pharma sectors unless until we see a definite USFDA clearances coming back.I have been keeping an eye on Wockhardt because already we have seen two years have been elapsed and we have been hearing that probably that could be the first company to receive the positive news flow. In case of Sun also, people have been talking that post Ranbaxy having merged and we have seen the similar integration now having completed probably they could be very aggressive in obtaining the USFDA approvals and all that but I think one has to see the big approvals coming in or maybe the change of the language or maybe the approach of the USFDA in respect to these big companies.Sonia: We were talking to you about the entire cement space and you did say that you have been recommending this space since the beginning, another space that you have been recommending is sugar, apart from cement and sugar and commodities, anything else that has caught your eyes that could be the theme for the next couple of weeks?A: Dye intermediates is the theme which I recommended. In fact, stock has almost risen by 50 percent to 100 percent in these last 10 days than on March 30. Take the case of dye intermediate to dyes and pigments because people have been taking a general call that everyone will get to benefit from this move but initially immediate benefit will be seen for the dye intermediates.Dye intermediates are used for making dyes and pigments and obviously the sharp increase which we have seen in dye intermediates by about maybe 200-300 percent in last two weeks, in fact, the product prices -- nobody believes -- has trebled. The selling price have trebled from Rs 350 per kilogram to Rs 1,100 per kilogram in just less than two weeks. So one has to look interestingly that what will be the effect on dyes and pigments maker. However, when you talk to them they say that this is all pass-through and many of them have also been holding the inventory of dye intermediates because obviously that is the raw material for them.So now, hereon they will be fetching the better realisation of the dye intermediates also. So the view which was only confined to dye intermediates now gets spilled over to dyes and pigments also maybe like Atul, maybe like Bodal Chemicals which are making the dye intermediates but they have the captive consumption. So these things again have to be kept in mind by extending because people have ever been getting confused between dye intermediates and dyes and other specialty chemicals, I don’t think that specialty chemicals will be the beneficiary but more this dye pigments and dye intermediates.