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Here are a few investment ideas from Prakash Diwan

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan of prakashdiwan.in shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.

September 20, 2016 / 11:26 IST
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan of prakashdiwan.in shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.Below is the transcript of Prakash Diwan’s interview to Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal on CNBC-TV18.Latha: Why don’t you give us your view on Jubilant Foodworks before we proceed to the other stocks? We have one bull and bear case.A: Jubilant will probably have to wait for the Swiggy’s of the world to tire out. That is the only strategy that works. Last few quarters, we have seen a very weak body language from the management and there have been rumours about differences between the promoters and the CEO which have taken a toll of sorts and sometime back we saw him sell all his stock also. So, that was the first indication or smoke signals coming through them that something was not in place. My sense is at lower valuations, it probably starts looking attractive because the model is not down and out completely. It has just weakened a bit.So, there will be takers for it. The domestic institutions will start looking at it more actively at lower valuations. As Rahul Arora said if Rs 750 is a real level that it moves to, it is going to be definitely very attractive. I doubt it is going to do that in a hurry, but unless the larger investors from the foreign institutional investor (FII) side which is about almost close to 50 percent of holdings come and exit, I do not think you will see that, because it is an illiquid stock at the same time. So, I would give it some time, let the dust settle, see who the new CEO is, what the new strategy is and then probably relook at it definitely more positively.Anuj: The other stock in focus today would be Castrol. You have seen that big block deal overhang, that would be over now. How would you look at that stock?A: It is definitely a very good opportunity. If you ask me, you need to put in perspective why that block deal is happening. In the first place, this is the second time BP has come to the market to do the stake monetisation because they need to shore up their balance sheet, thanks to the oil spill. It still had its negative impact and they would have to bring in home money from wherever it is possible.Castrol has got nothing fundamentally going against it. In fact, what they have done very clearly is they have done very decent volume growth at decent margins for the first time after a long hit-and-miss on the product mix. The personal mobility segment, the way it is likely to grow, be it two-wheelers, be it passenger cars, Castrol just has to correlate itself on that growth trajectory. If you are willing to pay such premiums to a Hero Motocorp and a Maruti Suzuki, I do not see any reason why Castrol is not going to do well as well. And it is just probably at about 25x price-earnings ratio (P/E) multiples on FY18 basis. So, it is not like out of reach of sorts. So, I think there is enough head-room. I would wait for this thing to get through at Rs 410-415 wherever it settles and probably straightaway go and buy it.Latha: Any of the construction stocks you are still positive on besides the Hindustan Construction Company (HCC), Patel Engineering Company? Even if you looked at the NBCC, KNR Constructions variety, that whole space, because roads are doing well, anything you like?A: Let me digress a bit. It is not pure construction, but there is a repair which is very clearly working and yesterday, you captured a glimpse of that and that was GVK Power & Infrastructure. The next big story is going to be there. Very clearly, the way they are going out, monetising most of their assets. Once you get out of certain deadlocked projects and get the critical mass, it gives you enough fuel to trigger a much better cleaning drive that you could do. We have seen Ashok Leyland do it. So, when it starts, it starts as a sputter, but then it starts getting that traction.GVK is probably something which people have not paid much attention to. It has moved from Rs 5.5 to Rs 7 plus, no doubt, but that is because all the strong hands have been accumulating this in anticipation of some revival. If things go off well, in a couple of years, you could probably see it double as well. So, there is no stopping that kind of a move as well.Sonia: Two stocks that are in a bit of a funk are Infosys and Yes Bank. Would you buy either of them now?A: Infosys, this whole thing about somebody leaving and this is the seventh exit, yes, optically it does sound, but you need to rev the company up into some semblance of growth. So, I am sure the CEO is busy doing that. I have never heard of this gentlemen who has left very actively in terms of what he has contributed. It has been more of behind the scenes kind of a strategist, the role that he has played. He was moved to consulting very recently, that too he did not perform. So, I would not believe that there is something too negative that is happening there. In fact, we would buy Infosys at lower levels and it has started moving into that zone.Yes Bank, I remember last week, Latha and I talked about this Rs 1,050 base. If that does give you that kind of an opportunity, yes, but at this point, there could be a time correction for Yes Bank before the dust settles on the qualified institutional placement (QIP) debacle. So, i would give it some more time and buy it at lower levels.Latha : At the moment, GVK is up about 4 percent which amounts to only Rs 0.30-0.35 on the stock, but some of these infrastructure stocks are moving up including some buying coming in at lower levels in MBL Infrastructures as well. GTL Infrastructure is doing, but I would be extremely skeptical. It is just some debt getting shifted into equity according to some news reports. But the entire infrastructure pack is kind of flying high. Any other stock that is of interest to you at this point in time?A: Given that we are turning into a festive season around the corner and if you see this, one space that has also, in flashes has done well and that is the ready to wear garments and advanced textiles. Look at the likes of Arvind, it is a great story that we all know where brand salience plus product quality matches good distribution and the magic is evident. Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, this is one company that after it has spun off has been ignored for a while. A couple of changes that they have done in the strategy, one is they have started focusing a lot on the e-commerce platform and they are not necessarily only going through the Jabongs of the world, but they have also got their own in-house Abof, which has started taking off well and it is a delight to actually try it out. It is a brilliant piece of e-commerce platform and interactivity.The second thing they have done is they have gone into innerwear. Now, if a brand like Jockey has that kind of salience and those kind of margins and headroom for growth, they have used one of their brands from the Van Heusen, Louis Philippe, Peter England to get into innerwear and that is priced very beautifully. It is just at the same price point as Jockey and very good quality as well. They have also expanded into Sri Lanka. That is the first foray. Getting into Sri Lanka in the ready to wear market is what it takes, but they have done that and of course, they will get some cost advantage.So, the company is very clearly now focused onto that and there was this murmur about Century Textile's business getting merged with that which shows that that is a focus area for the group. It is no more just like a restructuring exercise. That stock could be a long term wealth creator as well.

first published: Sep 20, 2016 11:26 am

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