Buy Adani Green Energy; target of Rs 1500: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial's research report on Adani Green Energy

AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power. Book realization was stable QoQ, while share of merchant+infirm rose to 33%. Net debt rose 37% YoY to Rs729bn amid cash-flow capex of Rs248bn in FY25. The management highlighted that the rains impacted Khavda project work in FY25, thus slowing capacity addition to 3.3GW, though FY26 guidance is healthy at 5GW, with 1GW likely to be commissioned within a month. AGEL now targets merchant+C&I share of ~25%; PSP exposure would also grow.

Outlook

AGEL’s FY25 EBITDA/APAT was slightly better than our estimate. We retain our assumptions and earnings estimates, along with our TP at Rs 1,500; maintain BUY.