Averaging down might seem a good idea, especially when you feel you’re getting a stock at a discount. But remember, not every drop in price is an opportunity, and sometimes it's a sign to reconsider your position. Blindly following the strategy without a deep understanding of a stock’s fundamentals can lead to significant losses.
What is averaging down?
Averaging down is a strategy where you buy more shares of a stock after its price has dropped, hoping to reduce the average cost per share. For example, if you bought a stock at Rs 100 per share, and the price falls to Rs 80, you purchase more stocks to lower your average cost per share.
The idea is that when the stock eventually rebounds, your overall profit will be higher because your average purchase price is lower. At first glance, this sounds logical. After all, who wouldn’t want to buy something at a discount?
But just like trying to catch a falling knife, sometimes it works, and other times, it doesn’t—leading to financial losses.
Also read | How does Donald Trump's 'gold card' plan stack up against other 'golden visas'?
The illusion of lowering the cost
One of the most tempting aspects of averaging down is that it reduces the average price you originally paid for the stock. It’s comforting to think you got more of the stock at a cheaper price. But here's where the illusion comes in.
Lowering your cost doesn't change the fundamentals of the stock. If the company is facing serious challenges, buying more at a lower price won't magically fix those problems.
Risk magnification
Averaging down can amplify your risk. The more shares you buy, the more exposed you are to further declines in the stock.
For example, you bought 500 more shares of a stock at Rs 80 after originally buying 500 of them at Rs 100, only to see the stock fall to Rs 60. You've now locked in even bigger losses of Rs 30,000 against Rs 10,000 earlier.
There's a popular saying in the stock market: "A stock that falls 90 percent is one that first fell 80 percent, then dropped by half." Averaging down without a clear understanding of why the stock is falling can magnify your risk and lead to substantial losses.
Instead of chasing a falling stock, evaluate why the price is dropping. Is it due to temporary market conditions, or are there deeper issues at play? If a stock is declining because of a fundamental problem with the company, averaging down could be throwing good money after bad.
The hidden opportunity cost
When you decide to average down on a stock that’s losing value, you’re tying up your capital. This means you might miss out on better opportunities elsewhere. You could be neglecting investments that offer more potential by focusing on propping up an underperforming stock. It’s essential to weigh the opportunity cost.
Also read | Here's why a shift in wealth-creation strategy is needed under new tax regime
Emotional roller-coaster
Investing is as much a psychological game as it is a financial one. Constantly averaging down on a stock can take you on an emotional roller-coaster. Watching the price fall after you’ve invested more money can create anxiety, stress, and a sense of helplessness.
What should you do then?
If a stock’s price drops but you have confidence in the company's future, then buying more can make sense. But this decision should be based on a clear understanding of the company's prospects, not just the allure of a lower price.
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, famously said, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." He meant that while short-term market movements can be unpredictable, over the long term, a company’s true value will be reflected in its stock price.
You should choose stocks based on sound research, strong fundamentals, and long-term growth potential instead of getting caught up in short-term dips.
When could averaging down make sense?
Now, it’s important to clarify that averaging down isn’t always bad. In certain situations, it can be a sound strategy.
For instance, if the stock market is experiencing a general downturn, but you have confidence in the long-term fundamentals of a specific company, buying more shares at a lower price could pay off when the market recovers.
Also read | Why locking in forex rates is critical in choppy currency markets
But this requires discipline, research, and the ability to separate temporary market volatility from a stock’s actual long-term prospects. If you’re averaging down on a stock simply because its price has dropped, without doing any research, you’re playing a dangerous game.
The writer is founder of Zenith Finserve
Disclaimer: The views expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
