Neutral TCI Express; target of Rs 730: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on TCI Express

TCI Express’s (TCIE) 1QFY26 revenue declined 2% YoY to INR2.9b (-7% QoQ), 9% below our estimate. Volumes declined ~1% YoY in 1QFY25, impacted by slower growth in the SME segment. EBITDA stood at INR281m (-14% YoY/+7% QoQ), 17% below our estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 9.8% in 1QFY26 vs. our estimate of 10.7%. Higher employee and other expenses resulted in lower margins Weak operating performance resulted in APAT decline of 13% YoY to INR195m (flat QoQ) vs our estimate of INR242m.

Outlook

We cut our EBITDA/PAT estimates for FY26 by ~7%/8%, respectively, to incorporate the weak 1QFY26 performance, while marginally reducing EBITDA and PAT estimates for FY27 by 3% each. We expect TCIE to clock a 9%/20%/22% volume/revenue/EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27. We reiterate our Neutral rating with a revised TP of INR730 (based on 22x FY27 EPS).