Neutral TCI Express; target of Rs 720: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on TCI Express

TCI Express (TCIE)’s 2QFY26 revenue was flat YoY at INR3.08b (+8% QoQ), in line with our estimate. Volume growth was flat YoY, hit by the GST rate cut. EBITDA stood at INR354m (-4% YoY/+26% QoQ), 6% above our estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 11.5% in 2QFY26 vs. our estimate of 10.6%. APAT stood flat YoY at INR252m (+29% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR237m. During 1HFY26, its revenue/EBITDA/APAT dipped 2%/9%/6% YoY.

Outlook

We maintain our estimates for FY26 and FY27 and roll forward our valuation to FY28. Accordingly, we expect TCIE to clock an 8%/9%/16% volume/revenue/ EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28. We reiterate our Neutral rating with a TP of INR720 (based on 20x FY28 EPS).