Neutral MCX; target of Rs 6100: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on MCX

MCX posted 57% YoY growth in operating revenue, reaching INR3b (5% miss) in 3QFY25. Operating revenue rose 63% YoY to INR8.2b in 9MFY25. EBIT stood at INR1.8b vs EBIT loss of INR310m in 3QFY24, a 6% miss on our estimates. The company reported PAT of INR1.6b (vs loss of INR54m in 3QFY24), flat QoQ, and was 7% lower than our estimates. For 9MFY25, PAT stood at INR4.2b. The quarter reported healthy volumes with an overall jump of 102% YoY (futures volumes grew 32% YoY and options volumes surged 116% YoY). The management has guided for this momentum to sustain, driven by: 1) new product launches, 2) increasing participation, 3) awareness programs, and 4) exploration of new commodity areas.

Outlook

We have cut our EPS estimates by 4%/14%/11% for FY25/26/27. The launch of serial contracts on crude oil will be vital for the re-rating of the stock. We maintain a Neutral rating on the stock with a one-year TP of INR6,100 (premised on 38x Sep’26E EPS).