As the month of November draws to a close and markets await the seasonal "Santa rally", investors will likely be looking out for these in the week ahead:
1. Will Japan data deluge allay economic concerns?
Investors will get a sense of how Japan`s economy fared at the start of the fourth quarter when a flurry of data including inflation, household spending, jobs numbers, retail sales and industrial output for the month of October are released on Friday.
This followed shocking data last week which showed third quarter gross domestic product shrinking an annualized 1.6 percent, putting the economy in technical recession. The dismal report card prompted Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay a second sales tax hike and call a snap election.
Consumer inflation is expected to slow in October, according to Moody`s Analytics, further raising doubts over the Bank of Japan`s ability to achieve its 2 percent inflation goal by next year. Nationwide core consumer prices, including the sales hike impact, could rise 2.9 percent, a tick lower than 3 percent in September.
Industrial production may fall 0.2 percent in October from the year-ago period, after rising annual rate of 2.7 percent in September, the fastest pace since the beginning of the year. Household spending could decline for a seventh straight month, but the expected fall of 2 percent on-year will be an improvement from September`s 5.6 percent tumble.
"The bulk of data will provide insight into Japan`s fourth quarter. Unfortunately it is likely to show that the post‐tsunami boost to residential construction has faded, and that a lack of wage growth and concerns about another sales tax hike are deterring consumer spending," analysts from Moody`s Analytics wrote in a note.
Meanwhile, investors will also be watching the release of the Bank of Japan`s (BOJ) minutes from its October 31 meeting on Tuesday. The central bank surprised markets that day by expanding its already massive stimulus program, pledging to increase monetary base annually by 80 trillion yen, more than 65-75 trillion yen previously.
2. Could rest of Asia steal the limelight?
Several Asian economies will be on this week, including India, the Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore.GDP-watch
India`s growth data due out on Friday will show Asia`s third largest economy expanding by 5.3 percent in the second quarter, according to estimates from Moody`s Analytics, a touch slower than 5.7 percent in the January-March period.
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll forecast Singapore`s economy to expand an annualized 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared to 2.4 percent in the April-June period, when growth figures are released Tuesday. Quarter-on quarter growth is expected to rise 1.3 percent, a slight improvement from 1.2 percent last quarter.
"GDP results in India should show that the post‐election improvement in business sentiment is starting to lift investment," Moody`s said. "Final third quarter GDP estimates for Singapore should show mildly below‐trend growth, partly due to lackluster electronics production."
3. OPEC meeting: Will there be an output cut?
As a recent slide in oil prices show no signs of slowing, traders will be closely watching the meeting of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna on Thursday, though analysts think a decision to reduce oil production will be unlikely.
"There`s a 55 percent chance of a `no cut.` There seems to be an indecision within the OPEC and going through the US and European results, I think the oil management team is also adopting this `wait and see` approach," Scott Darling, regional head of oil and gas research at JP Morgan, told CNBC.
Global oil prices have plunged since peaking in June. From around $115 a barrel, Brent crude has lost around a third of its price and was trading near four-year lows on Friday at USD 79. Weak demand, a strong dollar and booming US oil production were the three main reasons behind the slump, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Copyright 2011 cnbc.com
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