Consistent rally for eighth consecutive session seems to be an indication that Nifty 50 bulls are gradually getting fully charged, as the index not only held on to the 25,000 mark but also climbed near the 25,150 hurdle (the August high), rising more than 100 points on September 12. This is a crucial level for Nifty’s further upward journey toward 25,250, followed by 25,500–25,550 in the second half of the September series — provided the index defends the 24,900–24,800 zone, which experts identify as a key support area.
The India VIX, generally known as the fear gauge, dropped further and ended at an all-time closing low, adding to market stability and providing comfort for bulls amid reduced uncertainty and low volatility. The index declined 2.29 percent to 10.12, while for the week, it was down 6.1 percent.
The Nifty 50 opened higher and sustained levels above 25,000 throughout the session, hitting an intraday high of 25,139 and closing at 25,114, up 109 points. The index formed a bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating strength in the market despite minor intraday volatility.
Confidence among traders further increased as the 20-day EMA crossed above the 50-day EMA on the higher side, with the 10, 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs all trending upward. Momentum indicators also remained strong — the RSI jumped to 61, while the MACD was decisively above the zero line with a bullish crossover, and the histogram showed further strength.
Additionally, a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart suggests further upside, with a conservative target of around 25,500 likely to be tested during the September series, said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.
According to him, the support base continues to rise, with immediate support now seen at the 50-day moving average, currently placed around the 24,900 level.
“The strategy should be to buy on declines, as we have already seen a recent rally. Hence, some profit-taking at higher levels can’t be ruled out. Given the recent gains, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips,” he added.
For the week, the Nifty 50 index rallied 1.51 percent, adding to the 1.29 percent gains from the previous week, and formed a bullish candle on the weekly charts. The index continues to trade firmly above all key moving averages.
Weekly options data also suggests that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at the 25,200–25,500 levels next week, with 25,000 as immediate support.
The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,200 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,150, 25,300, and 25,350 strikes.
On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by 25,100 and 24,500 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at 25,100, 25,050, and 25,000 strikes.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty also sustained its northward move for the eighth straight session, rising 140 points to close at 54,809, taking the total gains to 1,190 points over these sessions. The index tested the 100-day EMA but could not hold above it on a closing basis, although it continues to trade decisively above the 10- and 20-day EMAs.
In the 10 trading sessions of September, the banking index has formed at least five Doji-like candles, reflecting indecision among market participants, as intraday movements — despite strong openings — largely remained choppy.
Despite this indecision, the index has managed to register higher lows, indicating underlying buying interest on dips, even in the absence of a clear directional trend, said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.
Momentum indicators continued to improve. The RSI has been on a rising trajectory since the start of September, climbing from a low of 27 to settle at 49 on Friday, suggesting a gradual pickup in momentum. The DI+ and DI- lines are approaching a potential bullish crossover, while a rising ADX line indicates strengthening trend momentum.
“Looking ahead, the 54,600–54,500 zone will act as crucial support. On the upside, the 55,100–55,200 zone will serve as key resistance,” Sudeep said.
The Banking index rose 1.28 percent for the week, extending its uptrend for the second consecutive week and forming a green candle on the weekly timeframe. The index closed slightly above the 20-week EMA, but remained below the 10-week EMA and the midline of the Bollinger Bands.
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