The markets have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, swinging between highs and lows. New investors who rode the 2023-24 bull run are now nursing sharp losses, with overvalued stocks down more than 30 percent. The correction is among the longest seen over the past 10 years, how much further pain is left?
Well, according to a large pool of analysts and experts, the pain should be over anytime soon. International brokerage Citi Research sees the frontline making up the gains to hit the 26,000-level by December 2025, indicating a 13 percent upside from current levels. As a result of the ongoing correction, the brokerage remains constructive on the markets, as the valuations for large-cap counters turns reasonable.
On the flip side, Japan-based brokerage Nomura believes that after a 16 percent correction from its September 2024 peak in dollar terms, the Nifty 50 can reach 23,784 by the end of 2025.
As for the trend through the year, Nomura anticipates the Nifty to trade in a range of 21,800-25,700, implying the possibility of another 5 percent downside on the lower end and a 12 percent upmove on the upper end of the spectrum.
So which way will the tide actually turn? As always, we will have to wait and watch to know!
JSW Infra (Rs 254.8, 6.9%)
Shares extended gains for a second session in a row after domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal picked the stock as its 'top pick' in the ports sector.
Bull Case: The brokerage expects cargo traffic to expand at an annual rate of 3 to 6 percent, with utilisation levels stabilising around 55 percent in the medium term. Container traffic, meanwhile, is forecast to grow between 4 to 7 percent annually over the next five years, driven by rising imports, lower freight costs, and the normalisation of global supply chains.
Bear Case: Policy uncertainty, such as delays in the National Ports Policy, has hindered investment. Infrastructure gaps, including inadequate last-mile connectivity and insufficient dredging, have limited port efficiency and scalability.
JSW Energy (Rs 496, +6%)
Morgan Stanley “overweight”, price target at Rs 545.
Bull case: JSW Energy's strategic expansion into renewable energy, storage assets, and competitive thermal acquisitions positions it as a key player in India's energy transition. With a projected 24% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-28 and strong market share gains in recent bids, the company is well-placed for sustained growth, making it an attractive long-term investment.
Bear case: Despite its renewable push, JSW Energy faces headwinds from declining thermal and hydropower revenues, as reflected in its 27% YoY profit drop in Q3 FY25. A 42% decline from its all-time high, coupled with market volatility and lower short-term realizations, raises concerns about near-term performance and valuation risks.
(With inputs from Veer and Lovisha.)
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