Sensex crashes 1,500 pts, Nifty below 23,150: US tariff worries among key factors weighing on markets

1) Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Plan: Market sentiment took a hit ahead of the expected rollout of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which he termed "Liberation Day" for the US. The president has already imposed levies on key trade partners, including Canada, Mexico and China and is considering additional tariffs on automobiles, steel, aluminium, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.

"Markets globally are awaiting details of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The actual impact on various sectors and countries will only be clear after the announcement," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investment Services.

2) Surge in Crude Oil Prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped 1.51 percent to $74.74 per barrel, raising concerns over India's import bill. Rising crude prices typically hurt domestic markets as India is a major importer of oil.

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3) Recession Risks in US: Goldman Sachs increased the probability of a US recession to 35 percent from its earlier estimate of 20 percent, citing the potential economic impact of Trump's tariffs. The brokerage also warned of a possible technical recession in the European Union, which could further weigh on global investor sentiment.

4) FII Selling Resumes: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in Indian equities after a brief buying streak. According to exchange data, FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 4,352.82 crore on Friday, adding to the pressure on domestic markets.

5) Profit Booking After Recent Rally: After gaining nearly 5.4 percent over the past eight sessions, both the Nifty and Sensex turned positive for the year. The sharp rise in valuations over a short period has also made some traders cautious, triggering a sell-off in heavyweight stocks. "India outperformed most markets in March with a 6.3% return," Vijayakumar noted, adding that profit-booking at higher levels was expected.

The fear gauge index, or India Vix rose 10 percent to 13.97 in trade today.

Technical View

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said, "We need a decisive move above 23,700-23,750 for the market to regain strength. Otherwise, we may see sideways trading with a downward bias, aiming for 23,300. A breakout beyond the 23,750-23,300 range could trigger a directional move of at least 250 points."

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