JP Morgan on March 5 slashed the target price on shares of YES Bank to Re 1 (from Rs 55 earlier) and retained its underweight call as the brokerage believes the networth is largely impaired.
The stock rallied 25.77 percent to close at Rs 36.85 after a Bloomberg report said the government has asked the country's largest lender State Bank of India (SBI) to bail out the private lender by forming a consortium of banks and picking up stake.
However, YES Bank has denied any such move and said it has not received any such communication from the Reserve Bank of India or any other regulatory authority.
"The new capital will likely come in at a steep discount to current share price, as forced 'bailout' investors will likely want a large cut for equity holders," the brokerage said.
The brokerage believes the forced bailout investors will likely want the bank to be acquired at near zero value to account for risks associated with the stress book and likely loss of deposits. The bank has not announced its earnings for the quarter October-December 2019 yet.
The brokerage also thinks the bank will need to be recapitalised at nominal equity value.
And it remains to be seen if Additional Tier-1 (AT1) at the bank will be called for dilution, as such a move could have implications for future similar issuances by private banks, it said.
"Taking a conservative view of the stressed pool in Yes Bank (Rs 45,000-50,000 crore), we believe the net worth (Rs 27,000 crore) can buffer most of the losses realised from the stress book at the bank. However, capital will still be required to recapitalise it, which in our view could be $2.5-3 billion if AT1 is not converted," JP Morgan said.
Forced bailout investors especially if part government-owned will likely need equity to be heavily marked down, resulting in almost complete erosion of book value per share, it added.
SBI and LIC are likely to buy 24.5 percent stake each in fund-starved Yes Bank as government and RBI are probably unsure that the bank can get an investor by March 14, CNBC-TV18 reported quoting sources.
LIC and SBI are likely to appoint a new MD for YES Bank and get control of the Board, sources told the channel.
In case of SBI, JP Morgan believes implications for biggest lender being called for national service are incrementally negative for its valuations as it sets a precedent for nationalisation of any future private losses.
"Part of this is already captured in the sharp discount at which the stock trades versus private banks and we believe a crystalisation of such an event effectively makes the discount sticky for a long time," the brokerage said.
(Disclaimer: The above report is compiled from information available on public platforms. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions)
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