The benchmark index, S&P BSE Sensex, fell for nine consecutive days last month from February 7 to 19. Given the somber sentiment on the Street at that time, no one could have thought that the index would rally 2,248 points in the next 14 sessions.
Thanks to the strong rally in past few sessions, the market capitalisation (m-cap) of BSE-listed companies rose by Rs 12 lakh crore as on March 12 to Rs 148.20 lakh crore from Rs 136.24 lakh crore as recorded on February 19 when the index made a bottom of 35,287.
In March alone, m-cap of BSE-listed companies has risen by Rs 7.79 lakh crore.
Both Sensex and Nifty have risen above their crucial resistance levels to hit 6-month highs, thanks to liquidity push from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), and expectations of Modi 2.0 in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to be held from April 11 to May 19.
“Before the Pulwama attack, there was uncertainty about the formation of next government. The way government has handled the situation increased the probability of BJP coming back to power,” Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities told Moneycontrol.
“Market is sensing a BJP victory after the Pulwama event and developments that have taken place since then. In the last three months, activity in emerging markets has improved with improved flows,” he said.
One big factor that is pushing the market higher is massive liquidity push seen from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) so far in March and February. FIIs have poured a little over Rs 10,000 crore in Indian equities till March 12.
FPIs were net buyers (equity and debt) in February as well as January 2019 for Rs 13,564 crore and Rs 127 crore, respectively. Experts feel that with FII flows resuming and domestic investors getting comfortable with the political developments, a host of beaten-down largecaps, mid and smallcaps are doing catch-up now.
“FIIs are continuously buying quality names that we saw in recent block deals of Kotak Bank, Wipro, etc. With stability in INR and supportive macros and micros can expect similar or better flow in the near term,” Yogesh Mehta, VP, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Securities told Moneycontrol.
“Lower inflation, lower interest rates, stronger rupee and stable crude prices are the support for India’s economy whereas global markets are worrisome over the growth slowing down, Brexit and tariff war between US and China, which indicates Indian markets are decoupled due to the election in the centre stage,” he said.
Mehta further added that the recent air strike in Balakot has increased the popularity of Modi and markets have started projecting better performance of the ruling party in the coming election.
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