If mkt panics over Trump win, it's a buying chance: Manulife

He has increased exposure to the Asian markets and to EMs. If there is overreaction to a Trump victory, he will be looking at the likes of India, China and Indonesia.Below is the transcript of Geoff Lewis’ interview to Anuj Singhal and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.Anuj: As we head into this important phase, we have the two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet and the US presidential election. Do you see volatility picking up?A: Markets are in a wait and see mode. I do not think they have got a reason for a major volatility. The Central Bank meetings are not likely to give us any fresh perspective. They are pretty much written off, especially the FOMC. So, I think it is wait and see till the election.I would not be surprised if markets gave a little sigh of relief and if there is a little relief rally assuming that Clinton wins, as the polls are now suggesting she should because that does remove a major uncertainty. There is far more uncertainty associated with a Trump presidency than there would be with Clinton, which is pretty much status quo and more of the same. So, markets are in a wait and see mode and it would take quite a significant piece of other news to shake them.Sonia: So, if Clinton wins, there will be a relief rally in the market, but what if Trump wins? Are you factoring in or are you looking at the possibility of a big fall in global equities because emerging market flows have already reversed over the last 2-3 months.A: I am not sure that that reversal in flows is particularly driven by Trump. The markets have been not focused on a Trump victory. Early in the stage, going back six months or so, faced with a binary outcome, markets were unable to know, which way to move and then when the polls moved in Clinton’s favour, markets have been pretty much assuming that that is what we are going to get. So, no if there would be a shake-out that would be initially because of the greater uncertainty, markets do not like uncertainty, there would be quite a strong nervous reaction if there was a Trump victory and that would affect emerging markets as well obviously.Anuj: What about the fund flows? We have seen quite a bit of outflow from Indian market and other emerging market equities as well. Crude is back below USD 50 per barrel. Are you sensing some signs of a risk-off trade?A: the amounts that we have seen have not been huge relative to the inflows that we saw earlier in the year. So, again it is wait and see. People are not wanting to take on more risk at this point. So, I do not think the amounts that we have seen are worrying at this stage. There might be more of a reaction against higher beta risk assets in the event of a Trump victory particularly, obviously with what he has been saying about increasing tariffs against China and the anti-trade rhetoric.But again, most of that would prove to be mostly rhetoric. He would probably behave differently after the election, but we do not know for certain. So, we have to wait and see.Sonia: So, for Indian investors sitting so far away, it becomes very difficult to judge what is rhetoric and what can fructify. What would your advice be to retail investors, long-term investors sitting in India now?A: Long-term investors are still on side with India and the Modi government and what he is trying to achieve and the economy is in reasonable shape. So, my advice would be if there is a market panic because of a Trump victory then that would provide a good buying point I would imagine particularly as India is not in Trump’s sights with regard to trade restrictions.Sonia: Is India a market that you are interested in as well and what would your pecking order be over the next six months?A: We have increased exposure to the Asian markets and to emerging markets generally particularly in the likes of a post-Brexit sell-off, we would be increasing exposure if there is a significant over-reaction to a Trump victory. Within Asia, we would be looking, with a larger economy, the likes of India, China and Indonesia.