Chartist Talks: Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities explains why he is bullish on these 6 stocks but flags Glenmark Pharma as overbought

The benchmark index Nifty's subdued price action in the last week points to a clear lack of conviction among market participants, as the index struggles to find fresh triggers for a directional move. The story was no different across the broader market. The Nifty Midcap 100 index mirrored this lethargy, clocking a range of only 606 points, its lowest weekly movement since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Nifty Smallcap 100 was even more muted, confined to a tight 257-point range, which was the lowest weekly range since July 2023.

Such compressed trading ranges across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap spaces underline a phase of market indecision and consolidation. And for intraday and short-term traders, this environment can be particularly frustrating. With volatility drying up and price moves becoming increasingly shallow, identifying tradable setups becomes challenging.

Yet, amid this sluggishness, the broader trend still leans bullish. The Nifty continues to trade above its key short and long-term moving averages, keeping the structural uptrend intact. But not everything is rosy under the surface. Momentum indicators are starting to flash warning signs. The daily RSI has slipped below the 60 mark and is heading lower, hinting at fading strength. The Fast Stochastic is now below the Slow line, indicating possible short-term weakness. Adding to the caution, the MACD histogram has been on a declining path for the past four sessions, further suggesting that momentum is cooling off.

In short, while the longer-term trend is still intact, the market is currently caught in a low-energy zone. Traders may be better off adopting a wait-and-watch approach until the next breakout or breakdown provides clarity. Talking about crucial levels, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,250-25,200 will act as immediate support for the index. On the upside, the zone of 25,600-25,650 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. A decisive breakout on either side will lead to a trending move in the index.

Bank Nifty View

The banking benchmark Bank Nifty settled the week above the 57,000 mark, registering a weekly loss of 0.72 percent, and formed a bearish candle with a minor lower shadow.

Despite this short-term pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with the index comfortably trading above its key short and long-term moving averages. Going ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 56,600-56,500 will act as immediate support for the index. As long as the index is trading above 56,500 level, it is likely to test the level of 57,500, followed by 58,200 in the short term.

Which sectors were on FPIs’ radar last month in terms of investment flows or increased exposure? Going forward, which sectors do you think could attract FPI interest this month and why?

Financial services, telecom and chemical sectors, witnessed strong inflows last month. In the last four months, FPIs have pumped in a whooping Rs 42,824 crore in the financial services sector. On the other hand, telecom space has seen consistent FPI buying for 6 consecutive months, totalling Rs 26,685 crore in 2025.

Talking about the chemical sector, not a single month has gone without inflows since September 2024. Although the quantum is not as strong as we saw in telecom space, persistent buying by the FPIs reinforces sectors' long-term structural strength. We believe auto & oil and gas sectors can attract FPI inflows this month. Both the sectors witnessed outflows in the first four months of 2025, but the trend has shifted in the last two months with both the sectors bucking the earlier trend and witnessing inflows. Also, the ratio chart of both auto and oil and gas to Nifty is indicating towards potential outperform in the coming month.

What are your top two stock picks for the upcoming week, and what is the rationale behind these selections?

Chennai Petroleum Corporation

The stock has registered a decisive breakout above a horizontal trendline on the daily chart, backed by strong volumes, confirming the strength of the move. Importantly, it formed a sizeable bullish candle on the breakout day, further validating bullish intent. It is currently trading well above its short and long-term moving averages, reflecting a strong underlying trend. Additionally, momentum indicators are aligned with the price action, pointing to sustained bullish momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 775-765 level with the stop-loss of Rs 745. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 830 in the short term.

KPR Mill

The stock has marked the high of Rs 1,389 on May 9, and thereafter, it has witnessed a correction, which was halted near its 50-day EMA level. The stock has formed a strong base near its 50-day EMA level, and it has resumed its northward journey. On Friday, it has given a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily scale along with robust volume. Interestingly, the daily RSI surged above 60 mark for the first time after May 2025, and it is in rising mode. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,190-1,180 level with the stop-loss of Rs 1,150. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,260 in the short term.

Are you expecting further upside in BPCL and Bosch? What are the key drivers behind your bullish or cautious stance on these stocks?

Yes, we are bullish on both stocks as they are witnessing strong bullish momentum along with robust volume. The moving averages and momentum-based setups also suggest strong bullish momentum in both stocks.

Are you bullish on Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and Glenmark Pharma? What technical factors support your view on these stocks?

On Friday, the IGL and IOC have given a fresh breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. Hence, we are bullish on both stocks.

However, Glenmark is in an extreme overbought zone as per RSI range shift rules. Hence, we believe it is likely to slide into the period of consolidation for the short term.

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