"The market is still not out of the woods. The current rise can be a short-term pullback and then there is a possibility of retest of lows on the downside," said Ashish Kyal, the Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors in an interview to Moneycontrol.
According to him, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Vadilal Industries can see strong momentum this week. "Sun Pharma has not given a close below prior day’s low since March 5 which keeps overall tone bullish. On the daily chart, prices have closed above mid Bollinger Bands," he reasoned.
In case of Vadilal Industries, he believes overall tone is on the positive side. "On the daily chart, ADX is suggesting strong momentum which can continue in this stock.
Is the Elliott Wave signaling further correction in the Nifty 50?
Nifty has shown recovery from the lows of 21,964 made on March 4. However, there has been selling pressure at the higher levels. On upside 22,800 - 22,877 is major hurdle zone. There is possibility that up move as per Elliott wave is corrective in nature and not impulsive. This indicates post completion of the upside pullback prices can again retest 21,900 – 21,800 levels on downside.
For now, on the upside 22,877 can act as an important resistance which is a Gann level. On the downside 22,330 is the immediate support. There is possibility that Nifty can consolidate in between 22,250-22,877 levels in this week. A breach below 22,250 might signal again resumption of down move for possible retest off 21,800 levels.
In summary, we are still not out of the woods and the current rise can be a short-term pullback and then there is a possibility of retest of lows on the downside.
Will the Bank Nifty continue making lower highs and lower lows, potentially reaching the June 2024 lows in the coming weeks?
Bank Nifty has outperformed Nifty if you do a ratio analysis. We can clearly see that Bank Nifty upon Nifty ratio has been moving on the upside which shows that Bank Nifty outperfomed Nifty. However, prices are flirting around previous lows made over past three occasions and it is just managing to protect that as of now. Any break down below 47,780 can resume the down move which can take prices lower towards 46,900 near to the June 2024 lows made in the Election month. A break above the highs of 48,380 is must for stability.
Do you see the possibility of the Nifty IT index hitting the June 2024 lows, given the ongoing bearish sentiment?
Nifty IT has already shown a fall of more than 19% since start of 2025. Currently RSI (Relative Strength Index) of it is near oversold zone. So possibility of a pullback cannot be ruled out. Currently the index is trading near 36,100 levels and June 2024 low is at 31,300, which is still 13% away. Over short term, prices might be on verge of completing 5 waves down and there is possibility of upside retracement 38,500 levels. Move above 36,600 will be first sign of positive reversal.
What are your top 2 picks for the this week?
The stock continued to shine with each passing day. We can see that Sun Pharma closed above prior day’s high in the Thursday’s session. Stock has not given a close below prior day’s low since March 5 which keeps overall tone bullish. On the daily chart, prices have closed above mid Bollinger Bands. Now with follow up action we can expect buying to continue towards the upper end which is near Rs 1,744 levels in coming weeks. In summary, we can expect positive momentum to continue in this stock if price breaks above Rs 1,690 with the targets of Rs 1,744 followed by Rs 1,800. On the downside, Rs 1,645 is the nearest support.
The stock was moving in a downward sloping channel over the past few months indicating accumulation in the stock. Post sharp rise of consecutive 6-7 days, prices are now witnessing minor dip which can be used as a buying opportunity as overall tone is on the positive side. On the daily chart, ADX (Average Directional Index) is suggesting strong momentum which can continue in this stock as it is showing readings of 32.53 which is above 25. In summary, trend for the stock is bullish. A break above Rs 4,840 is must for positive momentum to continue with the targets Rs 5,200. On the downside nearest support is at Rs 4,540.
Do you expect the Dow Jones to reach 38,500 (the August 2024 low) according to Elliott Wave analysis?
DJIA has formed an important top near 45,000 levels and has shown steep correction. Also this fall has taken out the prior rising segment in faster time that confirms short to medium term reversal on downside. 38,500 is possible but we can first witness minor pullbacks before the down move resumes.
Do you see further upside potential for Avenue Supermarts and Avanti Feeds?
The stock closed on a positive note with a gain of 2.21% in the previous session. The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on the daily chart. After giving breakout of the said pattern prices retested the neckline and sharp bounce on the upside was seen. Also, since March 3 prices have protected prior day’s low on closing basis which keeps overall bias on the positive side with the targets Rs 892 followed by Rs 935. On the downside nearest support is at Rs 807 levels.
At the start of the March month, the stock faced support near Rs 3,390 levels and a sharp recovery of more than 14% from it was seen. On the daily chart, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) have already shown bullish crossover which is acting as a double confirmation. For now, one should use buy on dips approach for better risk reward for the targets of Rs 4,100 or higher as long as Rs 3,640 remains protected on the downside.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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