Bernstein reaffirms bullish outlook on Paytm, hikes target price to Rs 1,000 per share

The brokerage said that the discussions on Paytm have taken a turn, moving from discussions about the firm's survival risks to a discussion on the bull and bear case scenarios for firm.

In a bull case scenario, Bernstein sees Paytm lending partly from its own balance sheet, and an improvement in payment margins. In this case, the brokerage sees a 100 percent upside to its base case EPS estimates.

However, in the bear case scenario, Bernstein sees Paytm's payment margins come under pressure, while loan disbursal growth will be subdued. In a negative scenario, there could be a 40 percent downside risk to Bernstein's base case estimates.

For the quarter ended September, the Vijay Shekhar Sharma-led firm clocked a net profit of Rs 930 crore in Q2FY25, compared to a net loss of Rs 290.5 crore during the same period last year. However, this turnaround was on account of a one-time gain of Rs 1,345 crore due to the sale of Paytm's movie ticketing business to Zomato.

Over the past year, Paytm shares have seen much turbulence on the bourses, falling almost 11 percent. However, from its 52-week low of Rs 310 per share which was recorded on May 9, 2024, Paytm shares have jumped 160 percent to date.

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