In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Nobel Laureate Professor Michael Spence of NYU talked about what he believes is happening to asset classes around the world and why he believes that the ongoing volatility is here to stay for a while.
In different places you need different policies, structural reforms, tax policy reforms, fiscal consolidation and so on and that wasn’t happening, at least it was not happening very fast and so the growth has turned out to be systematically disappointing.
At some point it seems to me and you never know exactly when the recognition of the lower growth and the effect on corporate earnings somehow would get reflected in asset prices and that seems to be what is going on now.
In addition there is a great deal of volatility because there is a lot of uncertainty especially from outside - people don't see easily and transparently and through the Chinese economy which is big and systemically important. They have made kind of clumsy policy mistakes with respect to the stock markets and to some extent, the exchange rate and the communication has been reasonably ineffective as well.
So, with all that uncertainty you have volatility and high speed capital flows. For the emerging markets generally you had a huge tailwind with commodity prices, a lot of cheap capital flowing in because of the monetary policies in the developed countries and both of these things have reversed -- commodity prices dramatically pretty much across the board producing fiscal stress, headwinds to growth and so on and you have volatile capital movements as the Fed starts to normalise its policies. So, it is just a very unusual environment.
I would say looking forward the structural underpinnings or sort of sustained kind of resilient growth are really not in place right now and it is going to take time to put them in place. So, I would not think of this period of slow growth as a temporary phenomenon, it is not permanent but it is not going to go away in 2016.
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