Kshitij Anand
Moneycontrol News
The S&P BSE Sensex defied history in the year 2018. The index rose 5.08 percent in November to post its best month since 2012 when it rose 4.1 percent. It rallied 9.8 percent in the year 2009, and 2.99 percent in 2014.
The bears were largely in control of D-Street in October and in September but fall in crude oil prices towards $60/bbl as well as sharp appreciation in the rupee which rose 5.5 percent against the Dollar, and not to forget dovish commentary from US Fed which led to money flowing into risky assets.
Morgan Stanley’s overweight stance, as well as HSBC upgrading to Neutral from Underweight, also added to optimism. Another factor which contributed to the rally was foreign investors which turned net buyers in November.
"Market ended with a positive note after witnessing a roller coaster effect ahead of G20 meet and expectation of oil production cut in the upcoming OPEC meet. On the other hand, FIIs turned positive to the domestic market as fall in oil prices to bearish territory and appreciation in rupee will stimulate economic growth," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
On a monthly basis, FIIs were the net buyer for the first time since March. FIIs poured in more than Rs 12,000 crore (Debt & Equity) in Indian markets according to SEBI data on Moneycontrol.
Also read: November scare for 2018: Bears controlled D-Street in 7 out of last 10 years
The momentum spill over to individual stocks in November. As many as 17 stocks rose 20-171 percent return in just one month in the S&P BSE 500 index which includes names like Adani Power, BEML, Infibeam Avenues, Kwality, and 8K Miles Software Services etc. among others.
In the S&P BSE Smallcap index, as many as 50 stocks rallied 20-171 percent in November. Three socks more than doubled investors’ wealth in the same period which includes names like 8K miles, KSK Energy, and Electrosteel Steels.
Stocks which rallied 20-100 percent include names like Ok Play, Vadilal Industries, EIH, Global Offshore, Vakrangee, Eros International, ADF Foods, Kwality, Jaypee Infratech etc. among others.
In the S&P BSE Mid-cap index, only three stocks rose between 20-40 percent which includes names like Adani Power, Kansai Nerolac, and Adani Transmission.
Technical Outlook:
Both Sensex, as well as Nifty, managed to reclaim crucial resistance levels in November. The S&P BSE Sensex is back above Mount 36K while the Nifty reclaimed 10,800 and had a touch and go moment with 10900.
Most technical experts feel that the momentum is likely to continue in December as well. The Nifty50 which reclaimed 10,800 is on track to hit 11,000 in this year as well.
The Nifty continued the winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, though it couldn’t stretch significantly on the upside today. The week started on a positive note & was completely dominated by the bulls.
“As a result, the Nifty formed a large bullish outside bar on the weekly chart. The daily, as well as the weekly momentum indicators, have triggered bullish crossover in the week gone by. All these observations suggest that the short-term trend is clearly in favor of the bulls & can take the index to 11000-11140 over the next few sessions,” Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Senior Technical Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas told Moneycontrol.
“The hourly chart, however, reveals that the index can attempt a minor degree dip before stretching higher. The Nifty has completed an Impulse on the upside on the hourly chart; so retracement of the rise is possible before the next set of Impulse begins on the upside. On the downside, 10780-10750 shall act as a key support zone for any countertrend dip,” he said.
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