India’s leading fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are preparing for what could be the coldest winter in several years, with early signs of a La Niña weather pattern prompting an aggressive buildup of winter inventories and trade activations. Firms such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Dabur India are banking on a prolonged cold spell to lift demand across categories like skincare, health supplements, and cold remedies, after a muted start to the quarter caused by GST transition-led disruptions and excess stock in trade channels.
Weather agencies expect the onset of La Niña by mid-November, which is likely to result in colder-than-usual winter across northern India. The phenomenon, which results from cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically leads to sharper temperature drops and a longer cold season across large parts of the country. For consumer companies, this could mean stronger demand for seasonal products such as cold creams, petroleum jelly, honey, chyawanprash, and hot beverages.
Companies Building up Inventory
HUL, which reported modest revenue growth of around 2 percent year-on-year in the September quarter, has already front-loaded inventory across its trade network. “We loaded pretty well in the trade. If at all we have a decent winter, we should have a good outcome, but if the winter is shorter or less severe, it will always impact sales,” said Ritesh Tiwari, outgoing chief financial officer of HUL, during the company’s second-quarter post-earnings call on October 29.
The company’s key winter portfolio includes skincare products under the Pond’s and Vaseline brands, as well as hot beverages like Bru coffee and Brooke Bond tea. Tiwari, who stepped down as CFO on October 31 to take up a global role at Unilever PLC, said the company’s “Channels of the Future” vertical maintained double-digit growth momentum, helped by stepped-up activations ahead of the festive and winter season.
Dabur India, too, is betting on a stronger and longer winter to drive sequential growth in consumption. The company’s management said that trade restocking had been delayed due to the GST transition, pushing winter loading from the second quarter to the third. “This time, we anticipate the winters to be more severe and prolonged compared to the last couple of years. The trade is still clearing old-season inventory due to the GST shift, so the real loading will happen now. If the winter is harsh and prolonged, the whole company will benefit, as around a third of our portfolio has a winter seasonal skew,” said Mohit Malhotra, chief executive officer of Dabur, during the company’s post-earnings analyst call last month.
Dabur’s winter-driven products include chyawanprash, the Honitus range for cough and cold relief, and the Gulabari line of cold creams and lotions. The company has also indicated improving demand visibility supported by better macros, a good monsoon, and recent GST rate reductions.
However, not all consumer goods makers stand to benefit from an extended winter. Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL), the maker of GoodKnight mosquito repellents, has cautioned that colder temperatures typically shorten the mosquito season, which could weigh on household insecticide sales. “The performance in the third quarter will depend on how long the mosquito season lasts,” said Sudhir Sitapati, managing director and chief executive officer of GCPL.
Consumer Sentiment Expected to Improve
Analysts say that a prolonged cold season could give FMCG companies a meaningful volume lift in the December quarter, especially those with winter-skewed portfolios. Yet, they also warn that the gains may be capped if the cold spell is shorter or geographically limited. High channel inventory and uneven rural recovery could further temper growth in some categories.
Despite these risks, industry watchers expect an overall improvement in consumer sentiment through the winter months, aided by moderating inflation and the return of seasonally strong categories.
According to Crisil Ratings research the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is expected to see revenue growth improve to 6-8% in FY26, rebounding from an estimated 5-6% in FY25, as volume expansion of 4-6% follows gradual recovery in urban demand and steady rural momentum. A two-percentage-point boost from price hikes—driven by rising input costs in palm oil, coffee, copra and wheat—will aid realisations. Amid higher competition from regional and digital-first brands, traditional FMCG players are ramping up digital outreach, and smaller packs, it said.
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