The week starting November 14 is lined up with some important national and global key macro-economic events, which could influence trading on Dalal Street. Among important macro data to be released next week in India are the CPI inflation and WPI inflation reading for the month of October. In addition to this, India's trade exports and imports and trade deficit numbers will be out.
In the US, the most important economic releases include Industrial and Manufacturing Production for October (on November 16), Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI for October (on November 15); and housing sales data for October (on November 18).
Also, world leaders will be gathering in the upcoming international summits - G20 and APEC - to be held in Indonesia and Thailand, respectively.
Let's take a look at the important economic, leadership and other events of the week beginning November 14, 2022:
Here's a schedule of the events:
November 14 (Monday)
Inflation: Consumer and Wholesale Price Indices' data
In India, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release October's headline retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on November 14 at 5.30 pm. Also, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and the month's exports and imports data will also be out on this day.
The inflation in October is expected to be moderate and favourable base effect likely to help drag both food and core inflation.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of 16 economists, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to have fallen to 6.7 percent in October from 7.41 percent in September.
Terming price rise as a major challenge, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on November 12 expressed hope that inflation print for October will be lower than 7 percent. He attributed the expected moderation in inflation in October to measures taken by both the government and RBI in the last 6-7 months.
A Reuters poll predicted that CPI slowed in October to 6.73% on weaker food price rises and a strong base one year ago.
CPI would still remain above MPC’s six percent upper tolerance limit for the 10th consecutive month. The RBI's tolerance band is 2-6 percent.
(The CPI is an index that measures retail inflation by examining the changes in prices of most common consumer goods and services. It is calculated for a fixed list of items including food, housing, apparel, transportation, electronics, medical care, education, etc.)
Retail inflation for industrial workers rose to 6.49 percent in September from 5.85 percent in August 2022, mainly due to higher prices of certain food items.
Inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) crashed to an 18-month low of 10.7 percent in September. The sharp decline in WPI inflation in September was attributed to a drop in prices of food items and manufactured products.
(WPI measures the price changes of goods that wholesale businesses sell to and trade in bulk with other businesses. The index tracks factory gate prices before retail prices, unlike CPI, which tracks prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.)
November 15 (Tuesday)
Exports & imports for October and Trade Balance for October
The RBI will release data on foreign trade data on November 15. This is captured by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) of the Ministry of Commerce & Industry based on flows/movements of goods across the customs frontiers of India.
During September 2022, India’s merchandise exports trade rose by 4.82 percent year-on-year to $35.45 billion. Merchandise imports trade during September 2022 increased by 8.66 percent year-on-year to $61.61 billion. And, the trade deficit widened to $25.71 billion in September 2022.
The country's services exports increased by 18.72 percent year-on-year to $25.65 billion during September 2022. During this month, services imports rose by 20 percent year-on-year to $15.10 billion.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported (a trade surplus). A negative number indicates that fewer goods and services were exported than imported (a trade deficit).
November 14-16
17th G20 Summit, Indonesia
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Bali, Indonesia, next week to attend the 17th G-20 Summit.
Recently, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that India is hosting the G-20 (Group of 20) leaders’ summit in New Delhi in 2023.
India will assume the presidency of the grouping from the current chair Indonesia.
At the Summit's closing session, Indonesia President Joko Widodo will symbolically hand over the G20 Presidency to PM Modi.
During the Bali Summit, G-20 leaders will deliberate extensively upon key issues of global concern under the summit theme of "Recover Together, Recover Stronger".
“Three working sessions will be held as part of the G-20 Summit Agenda — food and energy security; health; and digital transformation,” the statement added.
PM Modi will also address and interact with the Indian community in Bali.
Biden and Xi to meet
China’s President Xi Jinping will meet his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden during the summit. This meeting will be their first face-to-face meeting since Biden became the President. China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian during his press conference on November 11 said their president will discuss with Biden the "right way forward" to manage the differences between the two countries and avoid "misunderstanding and miscalculation".
Vladimir Putin to not attend the summit in person
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend a gathering of leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) nations in person but may join virtually via video call. Putin will be represented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It is being reported that Putin is giving the summit an in-person miss to avoid a possible confrontation with the United States and its allies over his war in Ukraine.
G20 is the premier forum for international economic cooperation representing around 85 percent of the global GDP, over 75 percent of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.
(The G20 or Group of 20 is an intergovernmental forum of the world’s major developed and developing economies. It comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK, the US and the European Union (EU).)
November 16 (Wednesday)
George W. Bush to hold public event with Zelensky
George W. Bush Presidential Center announced that former US President George W. Bush will hold a public conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on November 16 in Dallas. Both the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s commitment to democracy. The event will be hosted by Bush Institute. Zelensky's participation will be virtual.
Also, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will provide virtual remarks on advancing the cause of liberty.
Artemis-1 Moon mission launch
NASA has confirmed it is on track if weather permits for the launch of the Artemis I Moon mission during a two-hour launch window that opens at 1:04 a.m. EST on November 16. The launch countdown will begin at 1:24 a.m. on November 14.
It’s a two-hour window that would mean the mission lasts 25 days. NASA also announced a backup launch opportunity on November 19 (Saturday).
Artemis I is the first integrated flight test of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, an uncrewed Orion spacecraft, and the ground systems at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The mission will pave the way for a crewed test flight and future human lunar exploration as part of Artemis.
November 18-19
29th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, Thailand
The 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit is scheduled to take place in Bangkok, Thailand, from November 14-19. Leaders of 21 member nations will attend meetings on November 18-19.
China’s foreign ministry confirmed on November 11 that President Xi Jinping will attend the summit.
On the sidelines of the meeting, China president Xi Jinping will hold bilateral meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Senegalese President Macky Sall, Argentine President Alberto Fernandez, among others, upon request.
Putin to not attend APEC forum meet
According to Russian news agency TASS, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the meet. Quoting Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying, the news agency has reported the Russian delegation will be headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
US President Joe Biden will not make it to Bangkok but is sending Vice President Kamala Harris to the summit in his place.
APEC’s 21 members aim to create greater prosperity for the people of the region by promoting balanced, inclusive, sustainable, innovative and secure growth and by accelerating regional economic integration.
Also in the next week
COP 27 - UN Climate Change Conference continues
The 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference 2022 (COP27) which began on November 6, will take place until 18 November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
COPs, which stands for "Conference of the Parties", are review meetings on the progress made by countries in the fight against climate change and in the implementation of decisions taken in earlier COPs. The climate summits are held every year, for governments to agree steps to limit global temperature rises.
Earnings Watch
Week ahead earnings calendar in India and the US
In India, a number of companies including these are scheduled to release their Q2 earnings: Biocon, Godrej Industries, ONGC, Parle, SpiceJet, Jyothy Labs, MTNL, Apollo Tyre, Arvind Fashion, NBCC, Abbot India, Alembic, Aviva, Dish TV.
US companies' earnings to watch
Also, prominent companies due to report their earnings in the US include: Getty, Gladstone Capital, Harrow Health, Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Opal Fuels, Advent Technologies (November 14); Walmart (November 15), NVIDIA Corporation, Cisco Systems, Manchester United (November 16); Alibaba Group, Dolby Laboratories (November 17).
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