Relying primarily on renewable energy to meet India's net zero target by 2070 will result in higher power tariffs for the end consumers, according to a report released by the Union government on April 3, which added that the country will have to simultaneously increase its nuclear power capacity to keep electricity affordable.
The report "Synchronizing energy transitions toward possible net zero for India: Affordable and clean energy for all" was prepared by the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad for the government. It was supported by the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government of India and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd.
The study recommended multiple pathways using mathematical modelling for India to achieve its net zero roadmap. The most optimal pathway, as per the report, is where nuclear power rises five-fold from current levels to 30 gigawatt (GW) by 2030 and 265 GW by 2050. Here, emissions in 2070 would fall to 0.55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is known as a ‘net zero’ scenario.
While nuclear power contributes only 1.6 percent to India's current energy mix, the most optimal scenario presented in the report would mean nuclear power will contribute four percent of India’s total energy by 2030 and as much as 30 percent by 2050. In the same scenario, the share of solar power would decline from 42 percent in 2030 to 30 percent in 2050.
The reasoning given for this being rated as the best case scenario is cost. The scenario presents a reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) due to factors such as reduced investment costs of solar and wind, higher utilization of nuclear energy, reduced T&D losses and reduced interest rates.
"When looked at from the cost-to-consumer point of view, the system costs for nuclear energy are expected to be lower than those imposed by the variability of renewable energy. Since renewable energy, especially solar and wind, is variable, uncertain, location-constrained, non-synchronous, and modular in nature, the system effects and the system costs make the grid integration challenging," read the report seen by Moneycontrol.
A. K. Mohanty, Secretary, Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) said the government is planning to increase India's installed nuclear capacity by 100GW by 2047. India's current nuclear capacity is around 7,480 MW.
The study also found that despite India's net zero ambitions and initiatives toward achieving the goal, coal will continue to be the backbone of Indian energy system for the next two decades. Additionally, a coal phase-down will require active policies on critical minerals and carbon dioxide removal technologies.
"If India plans to phase down coal in the next three decades, it will need to build adequate infrastructure for alternative sources such as nuclear power, in addition to flexible grid infrastructure and storage to support the integration of renewable energy. Furthermore, the coal phase-down
will require undertaking significant imports of critical minerals to fulfil the needs of renewable energy and battery storage sectors. Therefore, the mining sector is expected to face substantial challenges," it said.
Financial requirements during 2020-2070 would be to the tune of Rs 150-200 lakh crore (about $2-2.5 trillion, or $40-50 billion per year), it stated, adding that considerable financial flows must be international.
As per the study, the present power load curve in India peaks at around 230 GW, while the total generating capacity is 456 GW. The projected load curve is expected to reach a higher level of 335 GW in 2030, while by 2070, it is likely to touch 670 GW.
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