Hold National Aluminium Company: target of Rs 246: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on National Aluminium Company

National Aluminium Company (NALCO)’s Q2FY26 EBITDA, at INR 19.2bn, was 29% ahead of our estimates, largely driven by a sharp increase in alumina sales volumes. NALCO continues to guide for 1.25–1.28mn tonnes of alumina sales in FY26, while 1mntpa alumina refinery expansion is expected to be completed in Q1FY27 (guiding for 500Kte of volume). Aluminium sales target is at 460Kte. The company plans to double its aluminium capacity by FY30 and is embarking on a capex of INR 300bn (INR 170–200bn on smelter and rest on power plant) starting from FY27–28.

Outlook

We roll over our target multiple to FY28 and arrive at a revised TP of INR 246 (5x FY28E EV/EBITDA). Downgrade to HOLD.