Hold Lupin: target of Rs 1950: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on Lupin

Lupin delivered a beat of 9.5%/26.3%/21.8% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT vs our estimates in Q2FY26, driven by exclusive products like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. As the exclusivity in Tolvaptan will end in Nov’26, management expects its quarterly run-rate in the US to fall to USD 275–300mn in H2FY26 (USD 315mn in Q2). While exclusivity in gSpiriva will stay in the near term, litigation overhang on Mirabegron supplies persists (next hearing in Feb’26). Going ahead, it aims to expand its global portfolio with prime focus on respiratory, CNS and ophthalmology products (including acquisition of VISUfarma). Management raises EBITDA margin guidance for FY26 to 25–26% (from 24–25%) and 24–25% for FY27.

Outlook

We cut FY26E EPS by ~1%, to factor in the muted show in India. Retain HOLD with an unchanged TP of INR 1,950, based on 20x FY27E EPS.